Research On Risk Contagion Of Credit Default

With the economic development of our country entering the new normal,the credit risk in China’s bond market has increased,and the balance of newly defaulted bonds has increased for five consecutive years.The subject of default has expanded from private enterprises to state-owned enterprises,and defaulted bonds have covered various major industries.Yongmei bond default not only seriously damages the interests of investors,in the complex financial environment,the default of Yongmei bond has led to obvious risk contagion effect,Yongmei bond default event brought a storm to the financial market.Risk contagion is the root of systemic financial risk,so it is of great significance to study the risk contagion of Yongmei bond default.This thesis is divided into four parts: The first part describes the current situation of China’s bond default and the theoretical basis of risk contagion,which provides theoretical support for the analysis of the risk contagion effect of yongmei bond default.The second part introduces the process and disposal of Yongmei bond default,paving the way for the subsequent analysis of Yongmei bond default risk contagion.The third part discusses the risk contagion mechanism of Yongmei bond default and analyzes the risk contagion situation of Yongmei bond default from business channel and expectation channel respectively.The fourth part summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward suggestions from the perspectives of investors,intermediaries,bond issuers and regulators.The research conclusions of this thesis are as follows: 1.Risk contagion caused by Yongmei bond default.The default of Yongmei bond has triggered a chain reaction in bond market,fund market and stock market,among which the risk contagion effect on bond market is the strongest and the contagion degree on stock market and fund market is weak.In the short term,Yongmei bond defaults caused turmoil in the bond market.In the long run,the default of Yongmei bond leads to the contraction of investors’ risk appetite,the increase of refinancing risks of some enterprises,the increase of financing costs of traditional industries and other financing difficulties,and the decrease of credibility of financial intermediaries.2.Yongmei bond default spreads through business channels and expected channels.In this thesis,the event study method is used to analyze the case of Yongmei debt default,and the risk contagion mechanism of Yongmei debt default are sorted out.However,due to the poor availability of primary data,the research content of this thesis is lacking in accuracy and comprehensiveness.