| In 2014,after the "11 Superday Debt" incident broke the rigid payment expectations of state-owned enterprises,the default phenomenon of my country’s credit bond market gradually emerged,and the "just-deposit belief" of credit bonds was gradually pierced.the processing mode to solve.Bond defaults began to occur in 2014,and only 6 bonds defaulted in that year,with a default scale of 1.34 billion yuan,but in 2021,there are 148 bonds with a total of 159.593 billion yuan.The rise of defaulted bonds is fast,and it is urgent to clarify the transmission logic of bond default risks.,in order to control the credit bond risks.It is more representative to select Henan Province,which has an upper-middle economic level and has experienced bond defaults.The overall economic and financial strength of Henan Province is in the upper reaches,while the debt burden is at the middle level.The debt burden is not heavy and remains stable all the year round.As the core enterprise of Henan Province’s largest state-owned enterprise,Yongmei Group in Henan Province unexpectedly has a high debt burden in 2020.The "Yongmei Debt Thunderstorm" incident occurred in November 2009,which shocked the market and is also a famous incident that broke the belief of state-owned enterprises,and the risk spread rapidly in the region.The Henan provincial government has handled the bond redemption of Yongmei and Yunenghua well,but there are still some internal problems of enterprises that still need to be improved.After research,this paper draws the following conclusions: there is a significant risk spillover phenomenon in the default pressure of the bond market in various regions,and most of them need a certain period of time to release this default pressure;after the default event occurs,the risk spillover effect of the bond market It will increase with the evolution of time,especially for cities with a medium-to-high bond issuance scale and economic development status,within 12 months after the risk occurs,the default pressure on other regions will gradually increase;the domestic bond market defaults The risk spillover network of stress will undergo a dynamic evolution process with the change of time and the occurrence of default events,and over the past few years,most of this risk stress has been concentrated in East China and Central China.The network centrality of these cities is on the rise,but the network centrality of developed cities is relatively stable and the ability to handle risk events is relatively strong.After a default event occurs,the default risk can be controlled within a certain range;When the default amount of the main body is relatively small or when the debt issuer has a debt crisis event,the local government actively intervenes: on the one hand,through policy support,on the other hand,the individual support for enterprises is also relatively large.In this case,the payment level after default will be higher than other cities.However,it is not ideal to rely on enterprises to solve problems purely through market-oriented processing methods.The problem can be improved by reducing the risk spillover effect between regions,developing diversified financing channels,and improving the market-oriented bond default handling mechanism of state-owned enterprises. |
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