Study On The Risk Early-warning And Precaution Of Sea Crossing Ferry’s Operation

With the rapid development of the domestic economy,rise of people’s living standard and growth of the automotive industry,the advantage of RoPax ships is becoming more prominent among middle and short distance passenger transport in regions with advanced economy such as Bohai Economic Rim,southeastern coast and Qiongzhou Straits of China.Although RoPax ship has characteristics such as high loading/unloading efficiency,fast turnover between ships and direct portage between land and water,there are some drawbacks which can not be ignored: large windage area and a great amount of passenger,which cause difficulty in safety management;liability of movement of cars and their cargo;high barycenter which may lead to capsize and etc.Problems in any part of the ferry’s operation could result in severe accidents such as fire,collision,sink and etc.In order to guarantee the safety of sea-crossing passenger ferries and numerous passengers,the potential risks are predicted and judged;the causes of the risk is analyzed,and then take preventive measures against all kinds of risk factors,avoid an accident or dangerous situation occurrence.It is necessary to investigate comprehensively and study in-depth the operating condition of sea-crossing passenger ferry.Based on the investigation of the current operation’s safety situation of the sea-crossing ferries of China,this paper collected the multiple sea-crossing passenger ferry accident data at home and abroad,and connected with the shipping company safety management.And the methods including the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Grey Theory and Bayesian Network were applied to explore the security status and the risk early warning and the control mechanism of the sea-crossing ferry passenger transportation class line operation.The major contents researched in this paper are as follows(1)In this paper,by using the accident causing theory and system safety theory,the causes of the security risk existing in the line operation of sea-crossing passenger ferry are recognized from the five aspects including personnel,ship,environment,management and cargo,then the risk evaluation system is determined combining the expert knowledge;and the risk evaluation model based on the multi-level grey theory was established.In addition,practical case was made to verify the model,the comparison results between the verification outcomes and the operation status of the researched object show that the multi-level grey evaluation model established in this paper is reasonable to some extent.It can evaluate to the integral risk existing in the ferries operation in practical work and provide guidance for the safety management of the oversea passenger ferry.(2)On the basis of risk identification and evaluation,the paper uses Bayesian network method to establish the risk cause forecasting model for sea-crossing ferry operation,to further identify sea-crossing passenger ferry the prominent cause of risk.Complete the construction and parameter of the Bayesian network by using GeNIe2.0 software;through the Bayesian diagnostic reasoning and sensitivity reasoning,find out the major risk factors and sensitivity factors respectively which influence the sea-crossing ferries’ operation.It can assist policymakers to put forward operable prevention and control strategy.(3)On the basis of the above analysis,the early warning and control mechanism of the sea-crossing ferry operations is analyzed in detail,and the principle which is the early detection,early reporting and early disposing is determined;then,the source of information and the channel of monitoring are summarized.A decision-making model of early warning management and organization system are set up.Finally,the pre-control response measures against the risk pre-control work of different factors are put forward,which is aimed to ensure that the actual work of sea-crossing passenger ferry operation can be carried out orderly.