Effects Of Carbon Emission Reduction Policies On China's Power Sector

Four carbon emission reduction policies are discussed in the paper: carbon emissions trading,CCER offset,green certificate and paid carbon permits.Effects of the four policies on China's power sector planning route has been analyzed.The model is based on a multi-period,multi-region model of China's power sector,with four additional functional modules of the four different carbon emission reduction policies.Effects of gradient input values are calculated and analyzed based on the model with functional modules.The Model LoMLoG is a multi-period multi-region planning model for China's power sector,developed by BP Center in Tsinghua University.Future functions are added to this model in this paper,including the four carbon emission reduction modules: the China's ETS module,the CCER offset module,the green certificate module and the paid carbon emission allowance module.The four modules require different input parameters,policy-based logical mechanisms,connection sectors to the main model as well as the specific output parameters for each module.Effects of each carbon emission reduction policy are discussed in the paper.The reference group is set as the ‘base' scenario,which no carbon emission reduction policies and no carbon emission caps are applied to.The effects of the four different carbon emission reduction policies include their influences on the installed capacity of different power sets,the power generation amount of different power generation sets,their annual operation hours,carbon emissions and the costs for each part of the model.The effects of the four different carbon emission reduction policies also include their various influences on different regions in the model.Besides,a series of input parameters are used for the four carbon emission reduction policies,in order to differentiate the effects of different input parameters.Conclusions include the effects of the four carbon emission policies compared with the base scenario on which no carbon emission reduction methods are used.Besides,the results of the four policies are compared with each other.Effects on China's power sector planning include effects on installed capacities,power generation,carbon emissions and cost.The four carbon emission policies have different priorities on effects on China's power sector.based on similar costs,with or without CCER offset,effects of carbon emissions trading on installed capacities of renewable energies and carbon emission reduction are more obvious than the effects of paid carbon permits.Green certificate bares the least obvious effects.CCER,as an offset of the carbon emission permits traded in China's ETS,with a lower price,it successfully reduces the cost of the total cost of the entire power sector.However,with the proportion of CCER offset increasing,the effects of ETS are weakened due to the lower carbon emission cost.The effects on the power sector structure as well as the total cost should be taken into consideration while choosing the proper carbon emission reduction policies.