Effect Of Carbon Emission Reduction Policies On ECSC Based On System Simulation

Since The future of our energy: creating a low-carbon economy in the 2003 Energy White Paper initiative proposes the "low-carbon economy",it is a tread that most countries transition to the low-carbon economy.As the world's largest developing country,China also tried to promote the low-carbon economy actively.In 2009,the Chinese Academy of Sciences in the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report clearly pointed out the strategic target of our low-carbon economy is that by 2020 China will reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP to 40%-60% of the level of 2005,the carbon emissions per unit of GDP will be reduce about 50%.Thermal power industry as one of the seven major energy-extensive industries in china,recent years facing the urgent pressure to reduce emissions,but the effect is minimal emission reduction.The reason is that the thermal power industry's supply and demand sides have the "market coal,planned electricity" features.This characteristics decided that only study from the perspective of industry lack of convincing.It will be better to achieve the low-carbon economic goals that from the perspective of the supply chain to explore that the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on carbon reduction and economic effect.The study establishes a simulation model of the electric-coal supply chain(ECSC)'s whole process carbon emissions based on carbon trading and carbon tax policy what considers two-echelon ECSC consisting of one single supplier and one single manufacturer by using the system dynamics method.Taking the ECSC of X Coal Industry and Y power plant in SHEN HUA state-owned enterprise as an example,we compare the effects of different carbon emission reduction policies on profit and carbon reduction,in order to providing some references about energy-saving emission reduction policies to ECSC or other energy-extensive supply chain for Departments.The simulation results based on the basic scenario show that the average ratio of carbon emissions in the production,transportation and consumption of ECSC is 12.1%,39.6% and 48.3%,respectively.The simulation results based on the carbon trading scenario show that: The higher the price of carbon trading,the more negative impact on profit of ECSC and the nodes,but the carbon reduction effect increased first and then decreased;With the decline in the proportion of free quotas,the profit of the ECSC nodes was significantly reduced while the emission reduction effect is slightly improved;Carbon trading subsidies can mitigate the decline in profit of ECSC and the nodes,and can effectively enhance its emission reduction effect.Based on the carbon tax scenario,the results show that: The higher carbon tax rate is,the less profitability of ECSC is,and the better emission reduction effect;Compared with the emission reduction effect,the corporate of carbon tax and subsidy policy can mitigate the profits of ECSC nodes.Based on the contrast analysis of different scenario simulation results and Chinese national conditions,the paper put forward some recommendations for the carbon reduction policies' implementation.The first one is that attach importance to the main carbon emission processes from the perspective of whole supply chain.The Secondly is distinguishes the settings of carbon trading and carbon tax policy.In terms of carbon trading policy: Establishing a benchmarking emissions economic value when setting carbon trading prices;Differentiation quota allocation will be implemented according to the different enterprise or industry.In terms of carbon tax policy,it's necessary to design reasonable tax rate and adjust it timely.The Third one is that implements and supervises a complete set of economic policies in view of the high carbon enterprise or industry.