Research On Regulation Strategies Of Navigation Risk Of Wuhu Section Based On System Dynamics

Relying on the golden waterway to promote the development of the Yangtze River economic belt has been developed into a national strategy,Wuhu section,as an important part of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway,is playing a very important role in promoting the economic development of the Yangtze River and protecting ecological environment.As the focus area of the downstream,it will rise great social concern once the accidents happens.Strengthen the study of navigation risk regulation strategy for Wuhu section is of great practical significance to ensure the personnel safety ? effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents and improve the supervision level of maritime management department.In combination with theory and practice,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are of equal importance,this paper uses the knowledge of risk management,statistics and transportation system engineering to conduct the research.On the basis of extensive inspection of literature and collecting data,this paper analyzes the current situation of navigation safety of Wuhu section,then find the existing problems in the navigation risk regulation of it.Next,extract the key influence factors and uses system dynamics to set up the SD simulation model of navigation risk regulation in Wuhu Section(SD model).Besides,the neural model,the gray model,the table function and the expert evaluation method were used to estimate the parameters and equations in the SD model.Afterwards,Vensim PLE was used to simulate the SD model and finally put forward the navigation risk regulation strategies for Wuhu Section.After the simulation,we draw the conclusion that on the staff protection level,the occupying rate of the crew should be improved in the first place.On the ship performance level,more attention should be paid to ship overload and try to improve the normal operation rate of the shipboard equipment.On the environmental control level,reasonable navigational facilities complete rate should be fixed and reduce the navigation risk caused by poor visibility through controlling the traffic flow.On the risk control level,we should firstly improve the crew training rate and then increase the monitoring equipment investment.The research results can provide scientific andtheoretical guidance for the maritime management department to reduce the probability of accident occurrence,properly allocate the supervision resources and improve the relevant monitoring regulations of Wuhu section.The SD model can provide reference for the study of ship navigation risk of other sections of the Yangtze River,and the research has reference value for safeguarding the navigation safety and shipping regulation of ships in Wuhu section.In this paper,there are two innovations.Firstly,the traditional SD modeling method is used to construct the navigation risk regulation model for Wuhu section,and the parameters of the SD model and the parameters are estimated by means of neural network,gray model,table function and expert evaluation method.Secondly,the SD model is firstly applied to Wuhu section.