Oil And Gas Pipelines Transporting Emergency Resources Demand Forecasting And Methods

With the steady growth of the world economy and the rapid development of energy demand in the world,the demand for energy,such as oil,natural gas and so on,has risen to a historical high.Oil and gas pipelines as the nation’s critical infrastructure and public utilities and equipment for long distance transmission,oil and natural gas,is part of the lifeline engineering,oil and gas pipeline security is related to national energy security and social stability.With the increase in the number and running time of the large scale oil and gas pipeline construction in the world,it has caused the occurrence of oil and gas pipeline accidents.How in the oil and gas long distance pipeline incidents in accordance with the needs of the rescue quickly to provide emergency resources,to ensure the timely and effectively carry out accident disposal,wounded,production recovery and environmental governance of the scene of the accident,has become a subject with important significance.The premise and foundation of the emergency rescue of the long distance pipeline of oil and gas pipeline is the demand forecast of the emergency resources.Emergency resource demand forecast from the characteristics.types and content aspects.Using case based reasoning(CBR).according to the emergency resource quantity and demand structure,through the numerical simulation the feasibility and reliability of the example to illustrate the model and its corresponding algorithm,so as to construct the applicable to oil and gas long distance pipeline accident emergency rescue is the actual situation of the emergency resource demand forecasting and dispatching model,through the model analysis and algorithm verification,the greatest degree of reduction of the rescue scene of material demand is object and purpose of the oil gas long distance pipeline emergency resource demand forecast.In the oil and gas long distance pipeline emergency resource demand prediction model as the theoretical basis,establishment of long distance oil and gas pipeline emergency resource database,with support of computer hardware and software,is developed based on geographic information system(GIS)technology to provide efficient oil&gas long distance pipeline emergency resource information management method,into emergency resource dispatching decision support system.In order to meet the emergency resource scheduling time limit,from oil and gas long distance pipeline emergency rescue reality,step by step established relatively simple single resource emergency resource allocation of,and in the solving process of single resource allocation model as the foundation,study and construct multi resource emergency resource allocation model;in the actual rescue dispatch time uncertainty acknowledged,the concept of interval number to describe the range of possible emergency resource dispatch time,is constructed based on interval number in multi resource emergency transportation model;and were to be a model analysis and solution.The aim is to find a balance between the amount of resource consumption and supply,improve the rescue efficiency,in order to find the balance point in the efficiency and cost.