Evaluation And Prediction Of Carbon Emissions Security On Land Use In Shaanxi Province

At present,carbon emissions security is becoming a new factor that affects the security of the country's social and economy.The influence of the land use carbon emissions is after the burning of fossil fuels on the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels,its security problem is about the regional,national and even the world's harmonious,stable and sustainable development.How to cut down the carbon emission source from the angle of land use,how to reduce the carbon emissions intensity,and how to ensure the security of carbon emissions becomes a new hot topic in the field of carbon emissions.To evaluate and predict the land use carbon emissions security and puts forward some countermeasures for land use carbon emissions security regulation,It has important theoretical and practical significance to promote the low-carbon and sustainable land use.This thesis was based on the foundation of the detailed information of land utilization and alteration,statistical data and the environmental bulletin data.The research concept was included the land ecology theory,the low-carbon economy theory and the land sustainable development theory.Referring to the related research results at home and abroad and combined with the actual situation of Shaanxi Province,cutting to the chase from two dimensions of time and space,using the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,the evaluation index system of land use carbon emissions security was established from two dimensions of pressure and response.Used the relative entropy theory to combine subjective and objective weights.Then,analyzed the spatial and temporal carbon emissions associated with the land used in Shaanxi Province.The improved unbiased metabolism GM(1,1)model was used project the situation for 2017 to 2025,In the end,strategies to reduced air pollution could be made available for the Province.The following results would be obtained:(1)The land use carbon emission overall amount has increased by 275.1% gradually between 2005 and 2016.There was a climbing trend for land use carbon emission amount of unit area in Shaanxi Province,the land use carbon emissions growth caused great pressure on the environment.(2)From 2005 to 2016,the land use carbon emission safety index of Shaanxi province increased at first,and then decreased,the carbon emission with the best state appeared in 2009.The index was regional dependent,the highest in the southern Shaanxi followed by the central and the northern region.(3)The security states in most prefectures of Shaanxi Province were at a critical level,they faced more pressure while the response system had improved obviously,a spatial clustering among the prefectures was evident.(4)The security states of Shaanxi Province from 2017 to 2025 will be continuously weakening,most prefectures will be in the critical and unsafe state with regard to carbon emission.(5)The obstacle factors was also regional dependent,we should adopt targeted carbon reduction measures from relatively sensitive indicators by recognizing the safety states of carbon emissions in the region.