Analysis Of The Influence Of Population Factors On Carbon Emissions In Shaanxi Province And The Forecast Of The Implementation Of The Two-child Policy

Promoting low-carbon development and promoting a green economy have become the basic development path of China.As a pilot province for low-carbon development,Shaanxi Province has made a series of efforts.However,as the economy grows,further industrialization and urbanization,especially with the implementation of the second-child policy,the resulting population growth and demographic changes will add pressure to the low-carbon economy.It is urgent and necessary to find a way to reduce emissions in accordance with the provincial conditions under the pressure of population.Therefore,this paper mainly uses the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province from 1986 to 2016,and expands STIRPAT model,then establishes the Shaanxi carbon emission model.Finally sets the benchmark scenario and the second-child scenario,to analyze the effects of the two-child policy on future carbon emissions in Shaanxi province.The main conclusions are as follows :(1)With the advance of industrialization and urbanization,the future emissions of our province will show an overall upward trend,which will bring more pressure to develop a low-carbon economy.(2)Per capita consumption has a significant positive effect on carbon emissions.In order to reduce emissions,we should promote the transformation of household consumption pattern to low-carbon.(3)The relationship between carbon emission intensity and carbon emission is significant but not clear.The present technological progress in our province has not been fully exploited,and its potential for future emission reduction is enormous.(4)Population factors have a significant impact on carbon emissions.The elasticity coefficients of population size,population urbanization and working age ratio were positive,with 0.569,0.56 and 1.857 respectively.The regression coefficient of household size to carbon emissions is negative(-1.162),which means that the miniaturization of households promote carbon emissions.(5)Compared with the baseline scenario,the population size of the second-child scenario is larger,the urban and rural structure also increased faster,the age structure decreased more rapidly,household size decreased less,and the corresponding carbon emissions are lower than the benchmark.Changes in population structure and household size resulting from a two-child policy have a greater impact on the mitigation of carbon emission pressures than environmental pressures caused by the size of the population.(6)Under the benchmark scenario,the population size tends to increase first and then decrease,if fertility policy is not relaxed properly,the size of the population of Shaanxi Province will have an inflection point in 2022.After the total release of the second-child,the population size grows faster in the short term,but in the long term will gradually tend to stabilize,Shaanxi province should establish timely two-child supporting measures to achieve a smooth transition of the population size.