A Simulation Research Of Environmental Regulation Effects On Industrial Green Growth In China

Faced with increasing environmental pressure and resource constraints,China's industry needs to achieve green growth urgently.But the nature of the public goods of environmental resources determines the control of industrial pollution should be regulated by environmental regulations.The key to the research and formulation of environmental regulation policies is to study the policy effect of different types of environmental regulations on industrial green growth.The current research focuses on the impact of environmental regulations on industrial green total factor productivity,and the evaluation and analysis of existing policies,which is lack of foresight.Therefore,the following study is carried out:First,based on the existing research results,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of environmental regulations on industrial green growth.The results show that environmental regulations can directly affect the economic growth,technological innovation,pollution emission and energy consumption of industrial green growth system.Meanwhile,environmental regulations can indirectly affect industrial green growth through intermediary variables such as FDI,technological innovation,industrial structure and energy consumption structure.The policy effect of environmental regulations is often reflected in the game of "innovation compensation" and "cost effect".Secondly,this paper regards industrial green growth as a complex dynamic system.Applying the method of system dynamics,this paper analyses hierarchical structure and feedback loop of industrial green growth system,and draws a causality circuit diagram.On the basis of this,the paper sets up the variable parameters and equations,and establishes a system dynamics model of green industrial development,which consists of five subsystems: industry,environment,energy,society and policy.Then the paper verifies the validity and stability of the model through simulation.Finally,by adjusting parameters of policy variables,the paper simulates development trends of green industrial development system under different environmental regulations.The result shows that judging from a single policy,command-and-control environmental regulation significantly inhibits the growth of industrial added value,though it is able to reduce environmental pollution.Market-based environmental regulation may decrease the index of green industrial development in short term.In long run,however,it plays an important role in promoting the development.Voluntary environmental regulations are conductive to the common development of environment,energy and economy and help to achieve green industrial development.Conclusions reached that single environmental regulation is a two-edged sword,and that the best outcome will appear only when regulations are combined together.Therefore,the proposal is to optimize the combination of environmental regulations,complement the advantages of each environmental regulation,moderately reduce command-and-control environmental regulation and form a policy system dominated by market-based and voluntary environmental regulations.