Trade Growth,Environmental Effect And Evolution Of Industrial Policy

Since reform and opening up,China has achieved the sustainable growth of economy and foreign trade.Meanwhile,related issues of resource constraint and environmental damage have become increasingly serious.During the 12^th Five Year Plan Period,China maintained the rapid growth in economy and significantly decline in four major pollutants,but the scale expansion of pollution-intensive products trade has generated negative impact on China's environmental quality.Government and departments at all levels have been actively taken specific measures to deal with different pollutants in China.There is no doubt that the questions like whether the China's high-speed growth of foreign trade aggravates domestic pollution emission or not,and how to reduce or avoid the negative impact on environmental quality under the growth trend of trade in the future are worthy of attention from the researcher and policymaker.This study attempts to summarize the evolution of industrial policy from the perspective of environmental effect of foreign trade,and effective way to coordinate the above relationship through industrial policy.Based on the theoretical framework of industrial economics,environmental economics and international trade theory,this study introduces the industrial policy into the research of environmental effect of foreign trade to establish a new theoretical framework.Taking the interaction mechanism between environmental effect and industrial policy as theoretical basis,it empirically analyzes the environmental effect of China's foreign trade from the dimensions of industry and region,and then investigates the similarities and differences of the revolution of industrial policy between Japan and China.Furthermore,on the basis of existing practice of industrial policy,this study takes carbon emission reduction as an example to discuss the policy choice under the trend of trade growth in the future,and to find a feasible way to coordinate trade growth and environment through the implementation of industrial policy.Firstly,this dissertation reviews“the three environmental effects”from the perspective of industrial policy to analyze the influence of the industrial policy on“the three environmental effects”.Based on the H-O model including the environment elements in perfect competition and strategic environmental policy model in imperfect competition,it further demonstrates the above influence mechanism and then reveals the interaction mechanism between environmental effect and industrial policy.The analysis shows that industrial policy could influence a country's environmental pollution through“the three environmental effects”.On the other hand,when the government gradually adjusts development goals according to the stage of economic and social development,the environmental effect could be treated as important basis for adjustment of industrial policy and then promote the evolution of industrial policy.Secondly,this dissertation estimates embodied pollution emissions in foreign trade to analyze the direct effect of export on environmental pollution on the basis of environmental Input-Output model,which is combined with panel data model to empirically test the threshold effect on environment of export from the dimension of industry.Besides,it also conducts the empirical test of the environmental effect of both import and export from the regional dimension.The analysis reveals that the scale effect played a leading positive role in the growth of embodied pollution in exports,and technique effect turned to be the negative effect,and composition effect existed unobvious heterogeneity.Furthermore,the empirical analyses from the dimensions of industry and region confirm the conclusion that export enhanced the pollution level,which is consistent with the result from structural decomposition analysis.Thirdly,this dissertation summarizes the content and characteristics of multi-stage evolution of industrial policy in Japan and China,trying to compare and analyze the policy pattern or similarity in coordinating the trade growth and environment by industrial policy.Above analysis could indicate that it's feasible to reduce the pollution emissions through industrial policy under the trend of trade growth.Policy analysis shows that both Japan and China have experienced the evolution of industrial policy from the neglect to emphasis on the environmental protection during the pursuit of trade growth.Industrial policy is important for both Japan and China to coordinate the relationship between trade growth and environment.Finally,taking carbon emission reduction as an example,this dissertation discusses how to achieve emissions reduction targets through industrial policy making under the trend of trade growth in the future,and accordingly analyzes the mechanism how industrial policy coordinates the trade growth and pollution abatement.It argues that scale effect aggravates pollution emission under the trend of trade growth,while industrial policy could alleviate or offset scale effect caused by trade growth by influencing the composition effect and technique effect to achieve pollution reduction targets.In addition,industrial policy is conducive to achieve win-win situation between trade growth and environmental protection,which depends on the country's development stage of economy and society.This study discusses“the three environmental effects”from the perspective of industrial policy and reveals the policy assumptions which are less concerned in existing research.And it combines the H-O model including the environment elements and strategic environmental policy model to demonstrate the interaction mechanism between environmental effect and industrial policy,to broaden the scope of application of strategic environmental policy model.Based on panel data of China's 15 industries,this study combines the results of embodied pollution in trade and regression analysis,and then empirically analyzes the environmental effect based on panel data of 285 prefecture cities,which can cover the shortage of industry differences,stale data and neglecting the import in empirical analysis based on industrial data.Besides,based on the development stage of foreign trade and by clues of institution,support industry and development strategy,this study compares and analyzes the evolution and trend of industrial policy from the perspective of environmental effect.The above research conclusions have theoretical significance by extending the research of environmental effect and broadening the research scope of industrial policy,and offer the new research framework to discuss how to coordinate the sustainable development between trade and environment through industrial policy in the future.Moreover,future researches maybe deeply concern the effectiveness and universality of industrial,heterogeneity influence and international cooperation,etc.