| Climate change is a global issue faced with human beings,and also highlights the conflicts between economic development and ecological environment.Mitigating global warming through accelerating the reduction of carbon emission has become a global consensus.Under this era background,a series of typical agreements and events in global climate field has provided political framework and legal basis for global carbon emission trading system,for example the United Nation Climate Change Convention,Kyoto Protocol,the Bali Roadmap,the Copenhagen Accord,the Paris Agreement and so on.These agreements also accelerate the international cooperation in global climate field and the steps of carbon emission reduction,and promote the construction and development of global carbon markets.European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS),the most successful emission trading system with largest trading volume and highest market value,was first established in 2005 while other countries were trying to reduce carbon emission.In addition,as the effects brought by negative externalities deepen,developed countries,like America,Canada and Australia,positively make preparations to build and improve their own carbon emission trading markets.As the number one emitter of greenhouse gases and the country with greatest potential of emission reduction,China's national carbon emission trading markets is developing in full tilt under the constraints of international environment and climate convention.But carbon emission permit,as a special commodity,the price of it fluctuates according to market supply and demand,regardless of under which carbon emission permits trading system.The price action directly affects the carbon price prediction and the risk measurement made by the participants in trading market.More importantly,it concerns the efficiency of emission reduction and the effectiveness of the carbon emission trading market.Therefore,the price mechanism of carbon emission permit is the core issue of carbon emission trading.Based on the era background above,this paper takes the price mechanism of EUETS as the research object.The systematic research roughly follows this logic order: Briefly introducing the international representative emissions trading systems.Making clear the core mechanism of EU ETS.Exploring these three questions respectively: How does the price of EUETS carbon emission permit come into being?(Price forming Mechanism)How does it operate?(Price Operation Mechanism)How to supervise?(Price Supervision Mechanism)Deeply exploring the elements that affect the price action and the contribution of these element to the price of carbon emission permit.Putting emphasis on the second stage of EU ETS,which is developing to mature,and the third stage in which how the price of spot and future goods of EUA and CER interact with and influence each other.In terms of research object,the research on the price correlation mechanism of emissions permit not only focuses on the correlation between EUA spots and futures,but takes CER as the object of study,hoping to find out the differences of the price correlation between the two types of commodities.In the interest of data selection,the author selects all the data covering the second stage of EU ETS and the latest data of the third stage that could be made use of at the time of writing.This paper adopts the latest and the most comprehensive data covering a long time span referring to these two types trading commodities,which are rare of its kind.At last,the research comes back to China emissions trading market.Based on the reviewing of its development process and analysis of the difficulties faced with national unified market in the initial stage of establishment,the paper continues to follow the analysis method on the price mechanism of EU ETS so as to work out how China's carbon emission price comes into being,how the price operates and how to supervise it? Generally,the paper includes the following 6 parts:Chapter one mainly focuses on the research background and significance to introduce the grounded on the definitions of the conceptions relating to carbon emission trading,theoretical basis,research status and literature review,research methods,research framework,innovation points and shortages.Chapter two refers to the constitute of EU ETS.First,this chapter summarize the background of the establishment of international emissions trading system and its development.This chapter briefly introduces several emissions trading systems in the world.Then,based on the elaboration of the formation,development and constitute of EU ETS,the author summarizes the total quantity control and distribution mechanism in the system,quota supply and supplement mechanism,monitoring reporting and inspecting system,agreement honoring and punishment mechanism.At last,this chapter introduces the achievements brought by EU ETS.Chapter three analyses price mechanismthe and influencing factors of EU emissions trading price.At the beginning of this chapter,the author the price forming mechanism,price operation mechanism and price supervision mechanism of the price mechanism are highlighted.Then,the author shows the price fluctuation situation of EU ETS in its three developing stages,and carries out qualitative analysis on the three aspects of the influencing factors of carbon emission permit price:supply factor,demand factor and external factor.Then,based on the analysis of action mechanism on the influencing factor,the author conducts an empirical analysis on the influencing factor of the price of EUA in its second and third stage by using models.Based on the analysis,the author finds that the price of energy resource has significant and direct influence on the carbon price.Except the price of natural gas in the third stage,other energy resources have obvious impact on the price of spot goods of EUA in different period.But the macroeconomic environment exerts limited influence on the carbon price and the relation in the third stage is not significant.The temperature variable has obvious impact on carbon price.With the frequent appearance of the extreme weather,the negative correlation influence of the temperature in the future on carbon emission permit price will become deeper.At the end of this chapter,the author concludes the enlightenment that can be learn from EU emissions trading price fluctuations so as to improve our emissions trading system.Chapter four conducts a research on the correlative mechanism of EU emissions trading price.The author establishes a price correlative model on the basis of making clear of the potential logic of price correlative mechanism in carbon trading markets,and conducts an empirical analysis on the price relationship and interactive influence of EUA spot and future goods in the second stage of EU ETS and on that of CER's,by using vector error correction model(VEC)and vector autoregression model respectively.The author also carries out empirical research on the price correlation of the EUA spot and future goods in the third stage.Meanwhile,the author makes use of quantitative analysis measures,such as the impulse response function and variance decomposition,to study the price correlative mechanism of EUA and CER in the second stage and the EUA in the third stage.According to the research,the author finds that in EUA and CER market of the second period of EU ETS,although future goods are of certain basis of price discovery function,the spot good yield rate still plays a dominant role.The price of future goods responds more sensitively to the market information and fits the price development of spot goods.In terms of the price influence relation of EUA spot and future goods in the third stage of EU ETS,the price of spot goods could provide certain guidance to that of future goods.At last,based on the extending the research,the validity of the conclusion is confirmed again.Chapter five mainly emphasizes the price operation mechanism of China's carbon emission permit trading.This chapter first retrospects the development of China's emissions trading system,and analyses the constraints faced with national emissions trading system and the market performance of the price of China carbon emission permit.Then this chapter puts forward the specific arrangement to the establishment of the price mechanism of China emissions trading.First,in terms of price forming mechanism,the initial quota in primary market should adopt mixed pattern combining free allocation with paid auction.The initial price of the carbon emission permit should be confirmed based on the shadow price calculation.Referring to the derivative price forming mechanism,fixing the price for carbon future goods should fully simulate various pricing models,quantify the future goods price scientifically and assess the value of futures.After comprehensive consideration,the trading price of carbon futures could be settled down and reasonable upset price of carbon futures auction could also be determined.Second,in terms of the design of price operation mechanism,some mechanisms should be set up,including carbon quota adjustment mechanism and high-low price limit mechanism,carbon emission quota and trans-regional offset mechanism of carbon credits,flexible implement mechanism on the basis of interperiod repository mechanism and floating bilateral relief valve mechanism.Third,in terms of the design of price discovering mechanism,national carbon futures exchange should be established in Shanghai,and carbon futures contract of CEA and CCER should be designed according to the fixed paradigm of international future contract.In addition,China should positively introduce diversified transaction subjects,such as emission reduction enterprises,speculators focusing on institutional speculation and futures broker companies,so as to vitalize the whole China trading market of carbon futures.In conclusion,the chapter makes an overall plan of the price mechanism of our national carbon emission permit.Chapter six puts forwards the main conclusions of the paper and some countermeasures and suggestions. |
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