Research On Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Carbon Emissions Trading Price In Guangdong Province

In the process of coping with climate change,China is more than a participant,but a leader.As of the end of 2011,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong and some other provinces had successively established the carbon-trading systems of their own characters.Guangdong’s carbon trading market,which is the largest now in China,plays an important role in the global carbon markets.So,doing research on the influence factors of Guangdong’s carbon emission rights trading price,and predicting the future low-carbon trading price,has its theoretical meanings and realistic values.This paper started with introducing the current research situation of the influence factors and the characteristics of Guangdong’s carbon emission rights trading market.And then,to analyze the influence factors of Guangdong’s carbon emission rights trading price,this paper studied from both the quota supply side and the needed side.Then,build the ARIMA model to predict the shortterm Guangdong’s carbon emission rights trading price and use VAR model to analyze the effects of each variables.The paper found that the total quota,the energy price,macroeconomic environment,the cost of emission reduction and so on are all the main factors which influence Guangdong’s carbon price and found that building ARIMA(3,0,1)model to predict Guangdong’s carbon price had good predictive ability.This paper concluded that all the variables had obvious significance on Guangdong’s carbon emission rights trading price.And the contribute degree ranked from largest to smallest were Guangdong’s carbon price,Shanghai’s carbon price,coal price,euro exchange rate,Shanghai Stock index,oil price,air quality index.Finally,this paper put forward the proposal that it’s important to enlarge the scale of Guangdong’s carbon market and promote it to become the global main carbon pricing center and the global Tanpuhui voluntary carbon emission trading center.And then,this paper also suggest that to fuse the carbon trading market,a unified carbon should be built in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.