Research On The Mechanism And Emission Reduction Effect Of Urban Bus Electrification

The transportation is a basic industry for national economic,and is also an important field of social energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.In order to resolve the contradiction between the shortage of fossil energy supply and demand growth,transport increase and reduce emissions,governments taken many actively measures of development sustainable traffic system,such as implementing the new energy vehicles,limiting fuel car sales,and construction of transit the city.Urban public transport system is an important part of the transportation system.With the rapid development of city,the traffic congestion,haze and other problems are outstanding;meanwhile transition towards low-carbon transport is in urgent need.In recent years,China government has put forward a series of planning policies,such as bus priority and the promotion of new energy vehicles in the field of public transportation,so as to promote the low-carbon urban bus transport.In recent years,researchers have made many beneficial explorations for the sustainable development of transportation field.Due to the lack of attention,research methods and environmental differences,there is a lack of specific research on the development of the low-carbon urban bus transport.Therefore,taking the electric system of urban public transport as the research breakthrough point,it is necessary and meaningful to explore the policy impact in the process of electrodynamics based on system simulation.Firstly,this paper puts forward the direction of the low-carbon urban bus transport as well as the connotation of sustainable development theory by the way of literature review,theoretical analysis and data collection,then this paper clarifies the content,methods and system boundaries.Secondly,we take the The Multi-Level Perspective（MLP）theory as the analytical frame work and makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the urban bus transport system by identifying the participants in the system and their hierarchical relations,expounding the main contents of each level,and then applies Actor Network Theory（ANT）to analyze the formation of Shenzhen urban bus transport electrification actor network.Thirdly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,the rate variable fundamental in-tree modeling is used to establish the system flow graph,combine the actual data and the model equation to quantify the relationship among the elements,and then establish the SD model of the urban bus transport system.Fourthly for displaying the development trend of the system and the behavior evolution of the main participants,this paper carries out the system simulation by controlling the different policy variables.Finally,the corresponding policy recommendations are obtained based on the simulation results.The specific conclusions are as follow:First,the influence of different policy types on transit transformation is obvious.The impact of voluntary participatory policy tools on the sustainable transformation of the system is obvious,the more development sustainable publicity and education are,the more the travel demand and buses are.The support policy tools and incentive policies have no such effects.And there are significant differences in the impact of different policy combinations on the sustainability of transit system transformation.Positive policies and measures can increase the scale of the public transport system and adjust the travel structure,and the operation company will also gain greater benefits.Second,the effect of urban bus electrification is obvious.the implementation electrification of urban public transport will control the CO₂ emission from the source.In order to improve the efficiency of emission reduction,consolidate the effect of the replacement of the electric power,and further improve the transportation environment and air quality of urban traffic,the assistance of the relevant policy tools will be needed in the future.Third,the development of electrification will promote the major change of resident trip structure,and the city will develop towards the direction of transit metropolis.Policy measures can change the awareness of urban residents and affect their travel mode choice and then the overall travel structure of urban residents will be adjusted over time.And the green development policy will help to promote the electric bus and realized city construction goal as soon as possible.The appropriate policy combination will promote the goal of transit metropolis faster and better realization.Four,the urban bus electrification is a long-term and complex system transformation process.On the one hand,we once again prove the reliability of the model.On the other hand,it indicates that the transformation of system is a long and complex process.Lastly,the policy has limited impact on the transition trend.Policy is an important variable in the transformation process,but it will not change the trend of transformation.Although the policy plays an important role in the development and transformation of urban bus transport,due to the complexity of the system transformation,the impact of the policy on the development trend of the system will be reduced after the completion of the electrification of the bus.To study the sustainable development of urban bus transport,this paper combines theoretical research with quantitative analysis,and makes a useful attempt on the field of methods study in system transformation.At the same time,this paper provides a scientific reference for the policy-making of the electric system development of bus transport system.