Study On Regional Differences And Policy Evaluation For Carbon Dioxide Emissions Of Road Transportation

The issue of global warming has attracted worldwide attention.The rapid economic development in China has led to increase in energy consumption.At p resent,China has become the country with the highest global energy consumption and CO ₂emissions.The transportation industry is the third largest industry for carbon emissions in China,where the road transportation dominates,and the carbon emissions from the road transportation are still growing rapidly.At the same time,the carbon emissions of the road transportation in the provinces are quite different,so the road transportation has become the target of government’s energy saving and emission reduction work.Government has formulated a series of low-carbon development measures for the road transportation,but if these policies and measures have effectively reached the expected goals,the answer is ambiguous.In this paper,we first calculate the carbon emissions of 31 provinces of road transportation during the period from 2002 to 2015,and analyze the differences in regional carbon emissions based on the Gini coefficient.Then the spatial metrology regression model is used to verify the existence of the environmental Kutz curve for road transportation,and discusse the factors affecting the carbon emissions of road transportation.Finally,taking the provinces of Central Rise Policy as an example,the spatial double difference model（SDID）is used to evaluate the energy saving and emission reduction effects of emission reduction measures of the Central Rising Policy on the six central provincial road transportation.The results show that firstly,the carbon emission efficiency of road transportation differs across provinces but that the difference is gradually narrowing.Second ly,there is an“inverted-N”-shaped EKC relationship between the per capita CO₂ emissions of road transportation and the per capita GDP.And the energy intensity and turnover rate of the road transportation are important factors affecting the per capita CO₂ emission in road transportation.Thirdly,the impact of emission reduction measures of the Central Rise Policy on CO₂emissions at the stage of operation in road transportation proves relatively weak;Finally,energy intensity,turnover rate,highway mileage of the road transportation,fuel mixture and population density show an opposite effect,whereas the per capita CO₂ emissions from the road transportation have a positive spatial spillover effect.This article has comprehensively studied the factors affecting the carbon emissions from the road transportation,so it has a certain significance for the government to formulate specific road transportation emission reduction measures.In addition,this paper uses the spatial model to explore the spatial spillover effects of the carbon emissions factors affecting the road transportation and uses spatial DID models for policy evaluation of emission reduction measures of the Central Rising Policy,which has enriched the spatial measurement research of the transportation industry and has certain innovations.