Investor Sentiment Propagation Model Based On Complex Network

With the development of complex networks,more and more scholars begin to combine the complex networks with infectious disease models to explore the transmission mechanism.As a human characteristic,sentiments are affected by the others' sentiments,which is similar to the spread of disease.In the Chinese stock market,individual investors account for a large proportion.Due to the lack of professional knowledge and the weakness of risk awareness,individual investors are easily affected by the other factors.As an important factor of investment behavior,investor sentiment directly affects investors' investment income.Compared with institutional investors,individual investors tend to invest irrationally.Therefore,the study of investor sentiment propagation model is helpful to explore the transmission mechanism of sentiment in investor network and has a guiding role in stabilizing the market order.Combining with the infectious disease model,this paper constructs two kinds of investor sentiment transmission models on the complex network respectively,and conducts theoretical analysis on the two models to explore the mechanism of investor sentiment transmission.Finally we explore the influence of different parameters on sentiment transmission through simulation.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the traditional SIR model is improved in the investor network,and the investor sentiment propagation model is established by considering individual differences.On this basis,the equilibrium point of the model is found and its stability is analyzed.Then,MATLAB is used for numerical simulation of the model to explore the influence of different parameters on sentiment transmission.The results show that controlling the proportion of individual investors in the stock market is helpful to suppress the spread of irrational sentiments.Enriching investors' financial knowledge can effectively reduce the proportion of irrational investors and promote the stability of investors' sentiments.Through the research of the first model,the relationship between risk awareness and sentiment transmission is explored on the two-layer network based on SIR modelby considering the educational guiding factors,and the UAU-SIR investor sentiment transmission model is established.First of all,a probability tree is drawn by the Microscopic Markov chain approach(MMCA),which shows the conversion process of each state.Then the equation is built and its propagation threshold is deduced.Finally,we analyze the coupling relationship between investors' sentiment spread and the risk consciousness by comparing the results of the Monte Carlo methods(MC)and Microscopic Markov chain approach(MMCA)and the effect of education on the sentiment transmission.The results show that the MMCA method is in good agreement with MC simulation,and the MMCA method can effectively predict the results.The coupling relationship between the transformation of risk consciousness and the sentiment transmission influences the transmission threshold and the final scale of the model.Educational guidance has an impact on the sentiment transmission,but the effect of educational guidance on the sentiment transmission of investors is also different due to the different degree of the transformation of investors' risk awareness.