Analysis And Research On The Coevolution Dynamics Of Disease Information And Infectious Diseases

During the outbreak of infectious diseases,social media plays an important role in reminding and educating the public.By raising awareness of the disease and its prevention,behavioral changes can affect the incidence rate of contact.The transmission of disease can enhance the awareness of crisis and promote the spread of information.With the continuous development and popularization of mobile technology,social media is expected to play an increasingly prominent role in the infectious disease modeling to improve its prediction ability.Therefore,scholars analyze the practical problems reflected by the mathematical model in simple terms by establishing the infectious disease model based on complex network.In view of the above phenomena,this paper establishes several mathematical models to study the coevolution dynamics of disease information and infectious diseases.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)According to the transmission mechanism of Novel Coronavirus(COVID-19)infectious diseases in 2019 and the influence of media information,an SIHRS epidemic model with media coverage is proposed.The basic reproduction number is calculated by using the next generation matrix method,and the global asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is proved.Based on the epidemic situation report data of Hubei Province from January 26 to February 13,the theoretical analysis results are verified by numerical simulation.Considering the different implementation rate and exposure rate of media reported information,the impact on the scale of disease transmission and the time to reach the peak is analyzed.The results show that if the information execution rate decreases,the peak of confirmed cases will be delayed and will increase significantly.Therefore,in order to take preventive measures after returning to work,it is necessary to maintain a high amount of media information and the implementation rate of media coverage.(2)Aiming at the media information coverage and the publicity of policies and regulations during the COVID-19 epidemic,an SIHRS infectious disease model with impulse time-delay response is established.The disease information is quantified by using information theory,and the positive and negative effects of the number of confirmed cases and the reported information of medical resources on people's emotions are considered.In order to suppress the amount of negative information of the public,the policies and regulations information publicity factor with impulse time-delay response is introduced.The system model is simulated and verified by using the reported data of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan.The main results show that when the implementation rate of negative information under the influence of confirmed cases gradually decreases to 0.4 times,the cumulative confirmed cases will be greatly reduced to about 37000 cases,indicating that the information of epidemic related media should be widely popularized;When the implementation rate affected by the amount of policies and regulations information gradually increases to three times,the cumulative confirmed cases will be greatly reduced to about 28000 cases,indicating that the continuous reporting and implementation of policies and regulations publicity information have an obvious effect on reducing the number of infected cases;When the inhibition rate of the amount of policy and regulation information on the amount of negative information gradually increases to three times,the cumulative confirmed cases will also be significantly reduced to about 27000 cases,indicating that targeted policy and regulation information has a good effect on inhibiting the corresponding negative emotions.(3)Due to the diversity of media and the heterogeneity of people receiving information during the epidemic,the awareness of epidemic prevention and control induced by media information can be divided into positive and negative.For this,an infectious disease model based on the impact of positive and negative information on networks is established.Firstly,the basic reproduction number is calculated by using the next generation matrix method,and the dynamic behavior of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is analyzed.In order to control the number of infected cases,reduce the contact rate and publicity cost,and achieve the positive publicity effect of the media,the time-varying control of the contact infection rate and the implementation rate of media reports is carried out,and the optimal control solution of the model is obtained.Finally,the results of theoretical analysis are verified by numerical simulation.The results show that media coverage does not affect the transmission threshold of the epidemic,but can effectively reduce the number of infected cases;Effective publicity of positive information and inhibition of negative information can effectively enhance people's awareness of prevention,so as to inhibit the spread of disease and reduce the scale of infection.(4)According to the different self-protection measures of different susceptible individuals and the changes of contact behavior during the epidemic,an SIS model of network infectious diseases affected by media information is established.The susceptible are classified,and the nonlinear incidence is used to reflect the infection rate of a kind of susceptible people affected by the media.The basic reproduction number is calculated by using the next generation matrix method,and the dynamic behavior of disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point is analyzed.In order to control the number of infected people,reduce the contact rate and publicity cost,and achieve the positive publicity effect of the media,the isolation rate is time-varying controlled,and the optimal control solution of the model is obtained.The effectiveness of the theoretical analysis results is verified by numerical simulation.The results show that the media coverage parameters do not affect the transmission threshold of the epidemic,but the isolation rate will affect the value of the basic reproduction number;When the intensity of media reports and the publicity of the government reach certain conditions,it will inhibit the persistence and attractiveness of the disease;Through sensitivity analysis,selecting the time-varying controllable quantity according to the situation as the control parameter will reduce the basic regeneration number,and the time-varying control has a significant effect on disease control.The main innovations of this paper are as follows: considering the saturation effect of media reported information,this paper utilizes information theory to quantify the media information generated by infected cases,and puts forward new ideas for information quantification;Portray negative phenomena such as panic caused by excessive media reports through negative information;The influence of multidimensional information factors on disease transmission,such as laws,regulations,systems and policies,is characterized by impulse system;The infection rate adopts the parametric incidence function to more realistically reflect the impact of awareness on disease transmission,which promotes the further research of disease information awareness model.