Investor Sentiment Diffusion Based On The Epidemic Models

Infectious disease models have been applied widely such as rumor spread and investment sentiment diffusion nowadays.Individual investors account for a large proportion in the stock market.Compared with institutional investors,these investors tend to be irrational and are more likely to be persuaded by other people due to the lack of professional knowledge and rich experience about investment such as ‘herb behavior’.Massive studies show that investment sentiment diffusion will affect the stability of the stock market and the stock price.Hence,it is significant to do research on investment sentiment diffusion.This paper contains five chapters.In Chapter 1,it briefly introduces the research background and the current studies on epidemic models and investment sentiment diffusion at home and abroad.The contents of this paper and the original points are mentioned.Chapter 2 shows the basic knowledge on this paper,including classic epidemic models,Lyapunov stability theory and connect between the complex networks and infectious disease models.It can be seen from Chapter 3 that hesitating mechanism is applied to SIR model in order to establish the new SEIR model which is more according to the fact.Obviously,there are some differences between the disease spreading and invest sentiment diffusion.Therefore,it is reasonable to take the memory factor into consideration.Different from previous researches,this paper concentrates on the exponential form forgetting rate to describe the important behavior that is important currently in people’s daily life.Then,it proves the stability of equilibrium points through Lyapunov stability theory and carries out the numerical simulation via Matlab.Chapter 4 proposes the new SCIR model with counter mechanism,time delays,and the diversity of investors.Then,the paper proves the stability of equilibrium points and obtains the reproduction number which is related to the topology structure of network.Finally,numerical simulation is carried out in order to study the effect of some values.In Chapter 5,the paper makes conclusions and refers to some imperfections that also show future research orientation.