Research On Investor Sentiment Diffusion Model Considering Information Disclosure

With the in-depth development of epidemic fields and information fields such as rumors from the use of infectious disease models to study the transmission mechanism,the similarity with this type of transmission process has caused widespread attention to the study of emotional diffusion.Behavioral finance holds that investors are irrational,and investment behavior and decision-making are largely driven by emotion rather than value.Individual investors’ speculative mentality and limited by their deep understanding of the market,the irrational behavior of the general expression of emotional dissemination has brought adverse factors to the healthy development of the stock market.In this paper,from the micro perspective of investor’s emotional transmission,infectious disease model is used as the basis of investor’s emotional diffusion research,and the role of information disclosure is introduced into the diffusion model as an additional variable to explore the influence of model parameters on emotional communication.Mainly from the following aspects:Firstly,this paper considers the state of investor’s emotional hesitation and introduces a time delay factor under the framework of a homogeneous mixture model to establish a SHIRS-M propagation model.There is an interaction between emotional infected investors and information disclosure: the intensity of information disclosure increases with the increase of the number of current emotional infected investors with a proportional coefficient.At the same time,emotional infected investors stop spreading emotions under the intervention of information disclosure,which has the effect of containing the spread of emotions.In the process of information disclosure,we apply time delay to show the lag phenomenon.Then the stability of the system at the equilibrium point and the condition of Hopf bifurcation are analyzed,and the correctness of the above conclusion is verified by numerical simulation.The results show that reducing the system lag and improving the intensity of daily information disclosure are conducive to the stability of the system and better control of emotional transmission.Secondly,this paper constructs a SIRS-M propagation model based on complex networks by considering the heterogeneous investor network formed by investor interaction.In this model,the interaction between emotional infected investors and information disclosure is manifested in that the intensity of information disclosure is strengthened with the increase of the probability of contacting emotional infected investors in the current network with a proportional coefficient.The role of information disclosure is not only to intervene the emotional investors,but also to reduce the infection proportion of emotional susceptible investors with the effectiveness of information disclosure.Then,the stability of the system at the emotional vanishing equilibrium point is analyzed,and the scale-free network is established for numerical simulation to verify the theoretical analysis and obtain the stability of the system at the emotional spreading equilibrium point.The results show that improving the effectiveness and credibility of information disclosure and reducing the loss of information disclosure intensity can significantly reduce the peak density and final density of emotional diffusion.