Evolution Of International Trade And Financial Networks

With the rapid development of economic globalization,total amount of international trade and international financial investment has been rising continually.Multilateral cooperation among economies has been playing an important role.Therefore,in recent years,more and more attention has been paid to the modeling and analysis of international trade and financial problems by using the method of complex networks.Based on the data of international trade and international financial investment from 2001 to 2016,this paper constructs a two-layer network model,and studies the evolution of its statistical characteristics,the mining of important nodes,the evolution of community structure and node roles,and the process of crisis propagation.(1)By calculating the statistical characteristics of networks,the connectivity,degree of globalization,degree of concentration and cooperation between large and small economies of international trade and financial networks are analyzed.(2)The classical node centrality indices such as node strength,composite flow strength and their practical significance in international trade and financial networks are studied.Several important nodes mining methods including current proximity centrality,current intermediary centrality,PageRank and HITS are generalized in multiplex networks.(3)A multiplex community mining algorithm based on the improved motifs-Louvain algorithm is proposed,which can deal with the problem of detecting non-fixed number of communities in multiplex networks quickly and stably,ensuring a high modularity and better reflecting the main characteristics of the network.The results of community mining show that new communities which are neglected in both single-layer networks can be found by using new method.In addition,based on the results of community mining and the characteristics of motifs,the roles of nodes is analyzed.(4)A multiplex cascading avalanche model considering the effects of direct,indirect spreading channel and Interaction between trade and finance is proposed.The simulation experiment of crisis communication is carried out under the combination of parameters with high discrimination.The spreading ability,vulnerability and other characteristics of nodes are analyzed.On this basis,the phase transition phenomena of the model are studied,and a two-dimensional phase transition point calculation method based on heatmap is proposed to measure the comprehensive spreading abilities of different economies on different networks or in different channels.Finally,the robustness,vulnerability and anti-aggression of networks are analyzed.