Study On Structure Characteristics And Evolution Features Of International Oil Trade Based On Complex Network Theory

Due to the separation of oil supply and consume markets,the global oil trade has become an important supplement to balance oil supply and demand.The long-distance and large-volume transportation of petroleum resources result that the supply presents the characteristics of transnational and trans-regional chain network structure.The complexity of the actors involved in global trade and the spatial structure makes oil trade security with oil and its derivatives as the core become one of the core issues of energy security.Complex systems are not simply superimposed,they should be considered the relationships and functions between individuals.Complex networks are the basic structures of complex systems,and each complex system can be regarded as the interaction network between individuals.Complex network focuses on the Topological structure of the interaction between individuals in the system and is the basis to understand the nature and function of complex system.According to the complexity of the world's oil trading system,we constructed a directed weighted international crude oil trade network model by using complex network theory.Based on the constructed network model,we applied the Top network method and the modified closed-system input-output method to evaluate trade preferences and influence of the countries which participates in the international oil trade.Top 1 network which is composed of top import and export trade relations is a simplified model of international oil trade network.We have studied its topological structure and evolutionary characteristics,which reveal the preference of each trading country to choose trading partners.Furthermore,by applying the modified closed-system input-output method,we have obtained the status of the trading countries on the international oil trade stage and their mutual influence relations.We have found that major oil importing countries have greater influence on the trading countries including major oil exporting countries.The results of oil trade network evolution analysis by the above two methods are consistent with each other.The research methods and results provide new perspective for trade countries to properly select trade partners and draft relevant trade policies.