The Influence And Warning Model Study Of Short-term International Capital Flowing On China

With global financial liberalization Increasing, international short-term capitalflowing is more frequent and larger, and is emerging as a high mobility, profit-driven,difficult tracking characteristics. Recalling the past two decades of economic crisis,many crisis caused by international short-term capital shocks. Although08year’s globaleconomic crisis is not directly causal by the impact of international short-term capital,but the international short-term capital also fueled as a strong play, and it has beenwaiting the opportunity. In order to avoid it attacks launched, we should strengthenattention to the international short-term capital flowing affect..The article bases on the results of the theory and empirical research, the first fromreality, has described the concept understanding of international short-term capital,analyzed the current the new features,new trends,reasons and channels of theinternational short-term capital flowing, thus the we has a more comprehensiveoverview of international short-term capital. Then article focus on a detailed analysis ofthe international short-term capital impact on China, and has a profound the empiricalanalysis to direct investment market. This paper by January2005to December2010monthly data, by using co-integration analysis, error correction model, Grangercausality test and other methods, has analyzed the international short-term capitalflowing on the impact of China’s stock and property markets. Empirical results showthat short-term international capital flowing will affect the capital market boom. Finally,focus on short-term risk of early warning to the impact of international capitalflowing,by Japan, Thailand, the United States and other countries as the test sampledata, after the sample tested, filters10of index. By using the KLR early warning modelempirically analyzes the impact on China of international short-term capital, the resultsshow that by2008U.S. subprime mortgage crisis sweeping the global economic, Chinahas suffered large impact and the impact is likely to continue or even longer.