| At present,China's economic development has entered a "new normal".Economic growth has grown from high-speed growth in the past to medium-speed growth.Adjusting the industrial structure is related to the overall situation of reform,development and stability.At the same time,China's situation of aging of population is severe,and the aging of population is showing an explosive growth trend.Under this background,how to implement the "innovation-driven development" strategy and take innovation as a strategic support to cope with the problems of economic structural transformation and aging of population is a realistic problem in the progress of China's economic development.This paper intends to combine theoretical and empirical research to further clarify the impact mechanism of aging of population,innovation and upgrading of industrial structure.Firstly,this paper analyzes the mechanism of aging of population,innovation and upgrading of industrial structure from two different perspectives: regulatory effect and spatial effect.Secondly,the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2001 to 2017 was used to verify the existence of innovation adjustment effect through the panel regression model,and the corresponding empirical research was carried out based on the threshold regression model and Spatial Dubin Model to further verify and expand The mechanism of industrial structure upgrading and the moderating role of innovation.The results show that the aging of the population will have a significant negative impact on the level of industrial structure and industrial structure supererogation.This effect exists in both the panel regression model and the Spatial Dubin Model.From the results of panel regression model and threshold regression model,first of all,innovation plays a positive regulating role in the impact of aging of population and the level of industrial structure and industrial structure supererogation.Innovation development can effectively mitigate the negative impact of aging of population to upgrading of industrial structure.Secondly,the changes in innovation will also change the effect of aging of population on the upgrading of the industrial structure,which is manifested in the nonlinear relationship: with the improvement of innovation the aging of population has effect of restraining at first and then promoting to the level of industrial structure and industrial structure supererogation.From the results of the Spatial Dubin Model,there are three conclusions in all.Firstly,the aging of population has a significant negative impact on the level of industrial structure and industrial structure supererogation considering the spatial effect,and the indirect effect of the negative impact of aging of population is greater than the direct effect.Also,innovation still plays a positive regulating effect between them.In addition,there is also spatial auto-correlation in the upgrading of industrial structure,the improvement of the overall level of regional industrial structure has a significant effect in promoting the local upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,the influence of spatial effect shows significant regional differences in the eastern,central and western regions of China. |
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