The Influence Of Farmers' Vulnerability On Poverty And Their Behavioral Game Analysis In Inland Arid Regions

Poverty is a result of the interweaving of many factors,among which the vulnerability is a key factor affecting peasant household poverty.The inland arid area with fragile ecological environment is considered as the "short board area" and "difficult area" restricting to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way,and the problem of poverty is always a bottleneck to constrain the sustainable economic and social development in this region.To achieve the stable poverty alleviation of poor households and improve the stability of poverty alleviation,it is particularly urgent and necessary to reduce the impacts of vulnerability on poverty and further analyze the behavior of micro-poor individuals.On the basis of this,focusing on the main line of the impact of vulnerability on poverty,this study takes Xixia District and Shapotou District of Ningxia province,which are located in inland arid areas,as the empirical research areas,and uses the method of entropy TOPSIS,and minimum variance multiple regression as well as the measurement of the incidence of poverty in the future,Sharpley value decomposition and evolutionary game model to systematically analyze the impacts of farmers' vulnerability on poverty and their behavioral game in inland arid areas.The results show that:(1)the estimated coefficient of vulnerability of farmers' living environment to the incidence of poverty is 1.0035,which has a significant positive impact.(2)under the poverty standards of 2300 yuan(national poverty line)and 3140 yuan(regional poverty line),the average probability of farmers falling into future poverty because of their own vulnerability is9.25% and 13.69%,respectively.Variables such as " the average length of education of the labor force,loans,loans and the ill of family members,the departure of family members,the increase of family members,the impact and risk attitude of rising costs of operating agricultural products" have increased the incidence of poverty in the future of farmers in inland arid areas.However,the variable of "freezing(snow disaster)shock" is the biggest contribution factor to the difference in incidence of poverty in the future.(3)there is a game between poverty alleviation institutions and poverty alleviation objects,but there is no long-term evolutionary stability strategy.Finally,on the basis of above,thecorresponding governance countermeasures on how to reduce the impact of vulnerability on poverty and how to form a governance mechanism are put forward,so as to build a sustainable and stable poverty alleviation mechanism for regional poor farmers from the perspective of weakening vulnerability.