Study On Influencing Factors And Countermeasures Of Price Fluctuation Of Renewable Resources

With the rapid development of science and technology,people's exploitation of all kinds of material resources continues to increase,resulting in increasingly serious phenomena such as land desertification and global warming,causing serious damage to the ecological environment of the earth.The recycling and utilization of renewable resources has the benefit of environment,society and economy.In today's severe shortage of resources,if the country wants to make economic development upstream,it needs to vigorously develop the renewable resources industry,using the output of renewable resources to make up for the shortage of original resources exploitation.Due to the late start of the development of renewable resources industry in China and the relatively backward technology and equipment,the recovery rate of many important renewable resources varieties is less than 60%.In addition,in recent years,the country has frequently issued policies to ban the import of foreign garbage,resulting in a shortage of supply in the domestic renewable resource market.Meanwhile,speculation has occurred in the market from time to time,leading to sharp fluctuations in the price of renewable resources.The renewable resource industry is of great significance to the sustainable development of the country,therefore,it is particularly important to develop the renewable resources industry,standardize the market order and stabilize the market price of renewable resources.This paper takes the price of waste paper as the research object,according to the development of renewable resources industry and the actual situation of renewable resources price fluctuation,the price fluctuation theory and equilibrium price theory as the theoretical basis to carry out the research.Firstly,the seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method are used to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of the time series of renewable resource price,look for the law of price fluctuation of renewable resources.Then,based on the price fluctuation theory,the influencing factors of renewable resource price fluctuation are divided into internal factors and external factors,summarize the main influencing factors and make qualitative analysis.Then,the vector auto regression model is used to explore the granger causality between each factor and the price of renewable resources,the dynamic influence of each factor and the renewable resources,and the contribution of each factor to the price fluctuation of renewable resources.Finally,based on the analysis of vector autoregressive model,PPM model is used to identify the sudden change point of the price fluctuation of renewable resources,and the relationship between the release amount of industry information and the price fluctuation of renewable resources is further revealed.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The co-integration test shows that there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the price of renewable resources,the import volume of renewable resources,the number of industry information strips,the output of paper products and the total retail sales of consumer goods.(2)Through the various influence factors and the price of renewable resources,granger causality analysis found that industry information release quantity is the granger reason of price fluctuation of renewable resources,the P value is 0.0211,and the price fluctuation of renewable resources not the article industry information release,the granger cause of price and renewable resources is the granger reason of the change of the renewable resource imports,the remaining factors and price fluctuation of renewable resources not granger causality.(3)Through the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition results,we can draw the industry information release amount of fluctuations in the price of renewable resources for a period of five months of lag,while imports of renewable resources and renewable resources price has a reverse influence relations,industry information release quantity,yield and total retail sales of social consumer goods and paper products have positive influence on the price of renewable resources.Variance decomposition shows that over time,the number of industry information releases contributes the most to the price fluctuation of renewable resources,which can reach 34.4.(4)Using the PPM model is used to identify the mutation point of renewable resources price time series,in the case of fluctuation threshold value of 0.3,it is concluded that 14 renewable resources price mutation,which is on the rise of eight,a downward trend has six,combined with industry information release situation,summed up the renewable resources price mutation has experienced "is given priority to with cyclical fluctuations","prices have climbed quickly","to further lift","rational correction" four stages.