Study On The Dynamic Relationship Between Fluctuation Of Agricultural Product Prices And CPI In China

At present,the topic of agricultural product prices is becoming more and more popular.It is of great significance to explore the internal economic relationship between agricultural product prices and CPI.Based on the overview of agricultural product prices and CPI connotation,this paper explored the internal mechanism of price transmission in theory and summarized the current research status of their relevance.It abstracted the research topic of this paper.This paper selected CPI,japonica rice,corn and soybean price index monthly from June 2004 to May 2019 in order to study their dynamic relationship based on SVAR model.Then it quantified their relationship by constructing SVAR model,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The empirical test results show that CPI fluctuation is more gentle than agricultural product price fluctuation.Japonica rice,corn and soybean price index and CPI have significant positive influence.The relationship between CPI and japonica rice price is not Granger causality.CPI and soybean have two-way Granger causality.Corn price is Granger cause of CPI,but CPI is not Granger cause of corn.CPI is most strongly affected by its own shocks,reaching a peak of 0.44 in the first phase.The impulse response of Japonica rice price to CPI is negative.Corn price is not reflected by external shocks to CPI in a short time,which will promote CPI for a long time.Soybean price is affected by new interest,which makes the response direction of CPI first positive and then negative.The main reason for CPI variance fluctuation is itself and the degree of explanation is 93.60%.The contribution rate of corn price to CPI variance change is not obvious at first,and then continues to increase.The explanation degree of Japonica rice price to CPI has been fluctuating.The contribution degree of soybean price to CPI standard deviation first rises and then fallsThe highlight of this paper lied in three aspects.The innovation of research perspective is focusing on the current high heat agricultural product prices from a dynamic perspective.The innovation of research content is refining the impact of Japonica rice,corn,soybean prices and CPI.The innovation of research methods is applying the classical method SVAR model to the new field that study the relationship between agricultural product prices and CPI.