Beijing Real Estate Market Price Fluctuations Study

The recovery of real estate, the growth of real estate investment and the housing area of urban residents gradually expanded, all these appear along with the housing system reform. At the same time the real estate market and the capital market are becoming increasingly closer. So the real estate has become a pillar industry of our economy. But in recent years, Beijing's housing prices rises rapidly and has been running at a high level. Therefore, research Beijing real estate price from the perspective of the price volatility by using the theories and methods of econometric. All that will provide a theoretical basis for the government macro-control policy.Based on the above situations, first, research the mechanism of periodic fluctuation through dividing cycles of Beijing real estate according to the economic cycle theory. Also, analyze the association with the macroeconomic policy. Second, use cointegration analysis, error correction model, impulse response functions and variance decomposition and other methods to study the fluctuation characteristics of Beijing real estate prices which depend on the different mode of financing over the present stage, purpose to reveal the impact mechanism of financing for real estate market fluctuation in prices. Finally, for the characteristics of change about the two markets, analyze the linkage mechanism on house prices and stock prices. Quantitative research the effects of the stock market's financial risk transfer to the real estate market by using Granger causality test, to look forward to being significance workout the stabilization of the financial asset prices policy providing certain drawing lessons.