| With the rapid growth of China's economic aggregate,the quality of life of residents has steadily improved,the diet structure has further improved,the demand for soybeans has been increasing day by day,and it has a strong dependence on imported soybeans.The sharp fluctuation of soybean prices directly affects the development of the national economy.This paper uses the error correction model GARCH model to conduct empirical research on the formation and fluctuation characteristics of soybean futures prices in China,and the financial properties of soybeans on the price of domestic futures markets to clarify financialization The influence relationship with domestic soybean futures prices has certain theoretical and practical significance for alleviating the losses caused by sharp price fluctuations of soybeans,avoiding potential market risks,and improving the construction of agricultural product market systems.The research contents of this paper are mainly in five aspects: first,the analysis of the mechanism of agricultural product financialization on the fluctuations of soybean futures prices in China;second,the formation and fluctuation characteristics of soybean futures prices in China;Analysis of domestic factors(domestic financialization factors);fourth,the analysis of the impact of international crude oil prices and currency prices(international financialization factors)on the fluctuation of China's soybean futures prices;fifth,the main conclusions and countermeasures.The study is divided into eight parts:The first part is an introduction.Firstly,the research background and significance of this article are elaborated,and then relevant researches at home and abroad are summarized,which mainly include three aspects: agricultural product price volatility research,agricultural product financialization research,and soybean price volatility financialization factor research.And overall framework;finally,the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper are put forward.The second part is the first chapter,the core concepts and theoretical basis.First,define the core concepts of agricultural product financialization,agricultural product price fluctuations,futures markets,futures prices,and spot prices;then discuss the relevant theories of this article in detail,mainly from the economic fluctuation theory,price fluctuation theory,and economic financialization theory.Explore.The third part is the second chapter,which analyzes the influence mechanism of agricultural product financialization on the price fluctuation of soybean futures in China.Firstly,the causes and formation mechanism of agricultural product financialization are explained;then the mechanism of the impact of international crude oil prices and international currency prices on the fluctuation of soybean futures prices in China is clarified.The fourth part is the third chapter,the analysis of the formation and fluctuation characteristics of soybean futures price.First analyze the formation and trend of soybean futures prices,including international soybean futures price trends,domestic soybean futures price trends,and comparisons of domestic and foreign soybean futures price trends;then use HP filtering and GARCH models to analyze the cycle of China's soybean futures price fluctuations Analysis of sexual characteristics and volatility.The fifth part is the fourth chapter,which analyzes the financial factors of soybean futures price fluctuations in China.First analyze the four distinct characteristics of the cyclical fluctuations in soybean futures prices under the combined effect of domestic and international financial factors after China's accession to the WTO;then select four domestic financialization factors: money supply,foreign exchange reserves,exchange rates,and domestic inflation.The impact of China's soybean futures price fluctuations is analyzed.The sixth part is the fifth chapter,the impact of international crude oil prices on the fluctuation of soybean futures prices in China.Firstly,the relationship between the international crude oil price and the price of bulk agricultural products and its influence path are explained.Then the VAR model is used to analyze the impact of international crude oil price on the fluctuation of soybean futures prices in China through unit root test,cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The seventh part is the sixth chapter,the impact of currency prices on the fluctuation of soybean futures prices in China.First,the state of the international currency price and its impact path are explained;then the VECM model is used to analyze the impact of international currency prices on the fluctuation of soybean futures prices in China.The eighth part is the conclusions and recommendations.Based on the main conclusions of the full text,this chapter proposes targeted measures from strengthening the focus on agricultural product financialization and futures market supervision,deepening futures market mechanism reforms,and improving soybean risk compensation mechanisms.Policy recommendations to stabilize the development of China's soybean futures market.The research conclusions of this article are:First,the volatility of soybean futures prices is becoming more and more complicated,and the degree of influence of financial factors is greater,and price volatility has greater uncertainty.As soybeans are becoming more and more a financially trending commodity,the later the period becomes,the shorter the fluctuation period becomes,and the more obvious the price fluctuations are,the more severe the intensity is.Second,the exchange rate is a major financial factor that affects the fluctuation of domestic soybean futures prices.Because the transaction price of the international soybean market is priced in US dollars,domestic consumers use RMB to purchase soybeans.Changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar will directly affect the movement of spot and futures prices in the soybean market.When the dollar depreciates,it means the yuan appreciates,and the domestic cost of purchasing soybeans in the international market decreases,which will stimulate domestic demand for soybeans,and then affect the price movements and fluctuations of the soybean futures market in China.Third,the short-term impact of domestic currency issuance on China's soybean futures market prices is relatively small,but there is a certain positive impact in the long term.The reason behind this phenomenon may be that China 's over-issued currency is flowing into real estate,fixed assets and investment in infrastructure construction.With the rapid growth of China's money supply,domestic real estate construction investment has continued to increase and house prices have increased sharply.The property is called the "cistern" of domestic currency oversupply.In addition,a large number of monetary funds have chosen to enter the fields of stocks,gold,etc.,and realize the "shunting" of currencies.Therefore,the amount of oversupply of currency is gradually transferred to the agricultural product market represented by soybeans and the related futures market after buffering and “shunting” of “shock absorbers” such as fixed assets,real estate,and financial market investment.At this time,the amount of monetary funds has been relatively small,and the impact on the soybean market spot price and soybean futures price has lagged,and the degree is relatively light.Nevertheless,it should be noted that with the excess of monetary funds in the market,a large amount of "hot money" will be bred.And once the "hot money" that is frantically profit-seeking focuses on the soybean market,it will still have an impact on the healthy development of the soybean spot market and soybean futures market,resulting in increased price fluctuations.Therefore,the effect of broad money supply M2 on domestic soybean futures market price fluctuations is gradually significant over time.Fourth,the domestic inflation rate will have a certain impact on the soybean futures market in the short term.This is mainly because the price index rise in the short term will drive the financial market and the soybean futures market to anticipate changes in future price trends.As an important component of the domestic inflation rate calculation,soybean price fluctuations will cause CPI fluctuations;on the contrary,changes in domestic inflation will affect the expectations of the soybean market in the short term and have an expected impact on the prices of soybean futures markets.Fifth,the international crude oil price is an important international financial factor that affects the price of domestic soybean futures.As an important energy resource,the international crude oil price affects the domestic soybean futures market in two ways: first,it will affect the trend of domestic soybean spot prices,and because the domestic soybean spot market will be inseparable from the domestic soybean futures market The relationship between the domestic soybean futures market and the domestic soybean futures market price will be affected.Secondly,the fluctuation of international crude oil prices will affect the domestic soybean futures market by affecting the expectations of domestic and foreign financial markets.Sixth,the international currency price is an international market financial factor that cannot be ignored influencing the fluctuations in domestic soybean futures prices.The research in this article uses the US dollar index to represent currency prices.The study believes that when other conditions remain unchanged,the rise in the US dollar index will have a certain positive impact on the domestic soybean futures market price in China,and the impact has a certain continuity.This means that whether in the short or long term,the US dollar index can have a certain positive impact on domestic soybean futures price fluctuations.The brief economic significance behind analyzing this conclusion is that when the US dollar index rises,it means that the exchange rate of the US dollar against other currencies rises,at which time the US dollar appreciates and other currencies depreciate.When the price of soybeans remains unchanged,this will cause the price of soybeans in the international market denominated in US dollars to form a substantial "price increase" relative to domestic buyers,which will cause domestic demand for soybeans imported from the international market to decrease.When there is no major change in the overall domestic market demand and self-supply,the total supply will decline,which will affect the spot delivery of soybean prices and increase the price of soybean futures in China.On the contrary,when the dollar index declines,the situation is just right in contrast.On the other hand,the appreciation of the US dollar will cause some speculative capital in the capital market to withdraw from the domestic market,resulting in a decrease in currency circulation in the domestic market,which will also affect the prices of various commodities,including agricultural products,to a certain extent.In a sense,the impact of domestic currency futures on the international currency price financial variable represented by the US dollar index and exchange rate financial domestic variables has similarities,but the two belong to different markets,and the perspective of analysis There are also some differences.Based on the existing research,the possible innovations are as follows:First,innovation in the perspective of topic selection.This article selects the perspective of financialization as the research entry point,analyzes the influence of domestic and foreign financial variables on soybean futures price fluctuations under the trend of soybean financialization,and selects domestic exchange rates such as exchange rates,inflation rates,domestic broad money supply,international crude oil prices,international currency prices The main foreign financial factors are used as variables.Selecting relevant sample data for empirical research is a useful supplement to the existing research literature.Although the existing academic research has gradually paid attention to the financialization trend of agricultural products represented by soybeans,the research mainly focuses on the impact of financialization factors on the spot market,and mainly focuses on qualitative analysis.Second,the research content is innovative.The research content of this article is to select the influence of domestic financialization factors(exchange rates,inflation rates,money supply)and international financialization factors(international crude oil prices,international currency prices)on the fluctuations of China's soybean futures prices Empirical Research.Although the existing academic research has gradually paid attention to the financialization trend of agricultural products represented by soybeans,the research mainly focuses on the overall analysis of financialization factors.Few analyses have been conducted from two perspectives at home and abroad.Third,innovation combining classic models with new perspectives on research.This chapter mainly uses the VAR model(vector autoregressive model)in Chapters 5 and 6.Through unit root test,cointegration test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition analysis,we discuss the individual internationalization of international crude oil prices and currency prices.The impact of financial variables on domestic soybean futures price fluctuations.The VAR model is one of the most important models for the analysis and prediction of time series related economic indicators.Existing research focuses only on the spot market,while the research in this section has achieved a marginal extension,extending the object of interpretation to the futures market. |
PDF Full Text Request