Study On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Weiyunhe Area Based On System Dynamics Theory

Weiyunhe area is located south of the north China plain,a plain area in the south department of Haihe river basin.It's a typical provincial boundary.Water resources of Weiyunhe area are scarce.Obviously,the annual rainfall is less than evaporation.Because serious exploitation of groundwater resources,the largest groundwater funnel area has been formed in China.Unbalanced supply and demand imbalances in water resources hampered the harmony of people's livelihood in the region seriously,the development of industrial economy and the improvement of ecological environment.The thesis adopts the system dynamics method to study the optimal allocation of water resources in the Weiyunhe area.The optimal allocation is guided by the scientific outlook on development,take the principle of "high efficiency,priority and sustainability",Using Vensim PLE professional software to build system dynamics simulation model.Simulation by parameter adjustment,in order to provide scientific basis and data support for optimal allocation of water resources.It laid the foundation of the optimal allocation of water resources in the Weiyunhe area.In the course of this study,the main works of the thesis are as follows: the surface runoff of major rivers such as the Weiyunhe and Majiahe,the maximum water storage capacity of important reservoirs such as Yuecheng and Datun has been counted over the years.Through the establishment Pearson ? curve to estimate the trend of area rainfall.As a result,the regional water resources are scientifically accounted.The thesis analyzes the supply and demand structure of regional water resources development and utilization system,and divides water resource system into 7 subsystems,including the water resources supply and demand subsystem,the social subsystem,the agricultural subsystem,the industrial subsystem,the service industry subsystem,the ecological subsystem and the economic subsystem.The logical relation and mathematical expression of elements among subsystems are established.Finally,we set up a system dynamics model that accords with the appearance,operation and historical inspection.According to the requirements of people's livelihood guarantee,economic optimal and ecological improvement,by adjusting the sensitive parameters,simulating and analyzing the structural changes of water resources supply and demand system.The optimization scheme of water resources supply structure and corresponding countermeasures are putted forward.Finally,the optimal allocation scheme of regional water resources under the strategy of sustainable development is formed.The results of the study show that: The supply and demand structure of Weiyunhe water resources continues to deteriorate under the current situation.The supply and demand ratio of water resources decreased from 0.4442 in the current level to 0.3572 in 2035.The consumption of water in the industrial economic structure has become a major part of the water demand structure.Among them,the rapid increase in the demand for water in the tertiary industry is most obvious.So,attention should be paid to it.According people's livelihood guarantee,economic optimal and ecological improvement three aspects of expectation,and water supply side reform optimization plan,the supply and demand structure of regional water resources has been greatly optimized.The supply and demand ratio of water resources has slowly declined from the 0.4442 level of the current year,and continuous optimization and improvement,and in 2035 reached the best 0.4906 in history.The social,economic and ecological effects of the optimal allocation of water resources are remarkable.The development trend of water supply and demand structure has been reversed.