Technology Forecasting Research Of Technological Evolution Bifurcation Point

In the process of product technology evolution,sustaining innovation and disruptive innovation constitute the complete chain of product technology evolution.Sustaining innovation is divided into incremental innovation and radical innovation.Incremental innovation is embodied in the process of improving the performance of a single S-curve;Radical innovation expresses on end to end of S-curves,and the performance is also improving with time.Disruptive innovation is divided into new market disruptive innovation and low-end disruptive innovation,the new market disruptive innovation in the S-curve is shown as the transfer process of products' time and performance curve.Disruptive innovation in the new market refers to the destruction of the main performance of the products,and the process of upgrading the non mainstream performance of products.The low-end disruptive innovation is shown as the process of performance's temporary rollback in single segment Scurve.In this paper,based on the theory of technology evolution,and combined with the product's demand analysis to the product technology opportunity search,the product realises technology evolution branch strategy.At last,this paper presents the technical opportunity to search for the current ATM,and verifies the feasibility of the method.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)The branch of technology evolution mechanism in the process of product technology evolution is further researched.Based on k-means algorithm in clustering analysis and the analysis of product demand,the model which is showed by the ration of demand-performance radar map is established.This model can be based on the user demand for the product information that can be acquired by the investigation and analysis of the user,cluster center that can be gained by the cluster analysis on demand information and demand-performance radar map that can be established by the cluster center and threshold value which is set by domain expert.(2)Association rule mining of user demand information.Association rule mining and Apriori algorithm are introduced.In based on the user demand information and applying Apriori algorithm,association rule mining is used on the demand information.Then the frequent items of user demand information which can guide the product innovation design is gained.The feasibility of this method is verified by the example of multifunctional lamp.(3)In based on the technology branch of evolutionary theory and demand analysis,the search process of product technology opportunities is acquired.Applying the process of technological opportunities on the current ATM search,this paper gives several technology evolution branch strategies of ATM.