Evaluation And Analysis Of Water Resources Vulnerability Under Climate Change

Water is the origin of life.Agricultural production and industrial production are inseparable from water resources.In the context of climate warming,the water cycle system will be affected.Therefore,the vulnerability of water resources has become an urgent need to solve for the sustainable use of water resources.The question is of positive practical significance for the evaluation and analysis of the vulnerability of regional water resources caused by climate temporal and spatial changes in Guizhou Province.This paper takes Guizhou Province in the karst region as the research object,uses the weather daily data of 31 stations including Weining and Guiyang from 2001 to 2018,based on the climate tendency rate method,the Mann-Kendall mutation test method,and the cumulative anomaly method.Analyze the trend changes and mutation points of annual average rainfall,temperature,and water resources.The entropy method is used to evaluate and classify the vulnerability of water resources in Guizhou Province,and then conduct multi-faceted research and analysis on the results of water vulnerability,in order to provide reference for ecological governance and rational use of water resources.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2001 to 2018,the annual average rainfall in Guizhou Province was 1167.52 mm,which showed an overall upward trend,with an upward trend rate of 66.52mm·(10a)-1.The rainfall had a sudden change in 2013;the annual average temperature was 15.82 ?,Showing an upward trend,the rising trend rate is 0.1450.145?·(10a)-1,and the year of sudden temperature change is 2014;the amount of water resources shows an overall upward trend,with a rising trend rate of 4.0661 billion m~3·(10a)-1,water resources The amount changed suddenly in 2013.(2)The spatial analysis of temperature,rainfall and water resources in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2018 shows that the average annual rainfall in Guizhou Province increases from northwest to southeast,and low rainfall areas spread from the northwest to the southeast;the temperature manifests itself from the north to the southeast.The direction increases in the south,from the west to the east.The high temperature areas in the province gradually increase,and the low temperature areas gradually decrease.In the past 18 years,the areas with less water resources have gradually decreased,and the areas with more water resources have gradually increased.(3)The water resource vulnerability of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2018 varied from 0.35 to 0.44.The average value of water resource vulnerability in the past 18 years was 0.43.Generally speaking,it was mildly vulnerable.From 2001 to 2018,Guiyang City and Qiannan The vulnerability of water resources in prefectures,Qiandongnan Prefecture,Tongren City,and Bijie City showed a downward trend,while that of Zunyi City,Anshun City,and Liupanshui City showed an increasing trend.The vulnerability of water resources in Guizhou Province is uneven in spatial distribution,which is higher in the north and lower in the south.The vulnerability levels of Zunyi City,Tongren City,Liupanshui City and Qianxinan Prefecture have changed to varying degrees.By analyzing the spatial distribution of the correlation between climate change and water resource vulnerability,it can be found that rainfall and water resource vulnerability in Guizhou Province are mainly negatively correlated.Temperature is positively correlated in the west of Liupanshui City-Anshun City-Guiyang City-Zunyi City,and in the east.Negative correlation.(4)The vulnerability of water resources in Guizhou Province is determined by multiple factors.The following countermeasures can be used to efficiently alleviate this problem.One is to take measures to balance the relationship between supply and demand,integrate multiple management methods,and manage water supply and water demand;Targeted governance based on vulnerabilities;the third is to enhance water conservation awareness and improve water resource utilization efficiency;the fourth is to strengthen sewage treatment and water recycling.