Correlation Analysis Of RMB Exchange Rate And Prediction Of RMB Exchange Rate Based On Grey System Theory

Accurate analysis of the correlation between the RMB exchange rate and economic activities and accurate prediction of the RMB exchange rate is an important means to effectively prevent China's economic problems.At the same time,it is also an important issue concerning the development of the country and people's.This requires us to find a better way to analyze the exchange rate of the RMB,and to find a better prediction model for the forecast of the RMB exchange rate.In order to better control the economic market according to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and promote the development of China's economy.This paper mainly analyzes the main impact of RMB exchange rate on economic activities through extensive literature review of RMB exchange rate.The correlation degree of RMB exchange rate and economic activity is analyzed by grey relational degree and the Generalized Grey Relational Degree.After that,the grey relational degree is partially improved,and the distance analysis method is used to weight the samples,and then the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and economic activities is obtained again.It is concluded that the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the real estate market price is the closest,followed by the total export trade and the total import trade.In terms of RMB exchange rate prediction,the 2005-2015 years value of RMB exchange rate is tested by Markov test and feasibility test of grey system modeling,and Markov forecast model is used to predict the range of RMB exchange rate in the next few years,and the specific value of RMB exchange rate for 2016-2018 years is predicted by using GM(1,1)model.With the updating of date,the 2017-2018 years RMB exchange rate value is predicted by using the new information model and the metabolic model.By comparing the simulation accuracy of various prediction models,the best prediction model is the metabolic model.lt predicts that the RMB exchange rate in 2017 and 2018 will be 6.5183 and 6.4572.A11 departments can take effective measures according to the forecast data to minimize the adverse effects caused by the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.Meanwhile,the comparison of several forecasting models also provides a reliable basis for forecasting the choice of RMB exchange rate method in the future.