Risk Assessment And Estimation Of Summer Maize Drought Disaster In Anhui Province

Anhui is an important agricultural production base in China.Maize is an important food crop,but drought has seriously affected production.The study on the temporal and spatial distribution of summer maize drought disasters in Anhui Province is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the standardized precipitation index SPI,this paper establishes the risk assessment index system of summer maize drought disaster in Anhui Province through the theory of natural disaster risk,from the hazard factor hazard,the exposure of the hazard,the vulnerability of the disaster environment and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.In this regard,the risk assessment of summer maize drought in Anhui Province was carried out,and SPI was calculated through RCP4.5 future climate scenario data to estimate the future drought risk.The main research results completed are summarized as follows:1)Drought is the main meteorological disaster in Anhui Province.It occurred to a certain extent every year from 1960 to 2017.The drought conditions in 1976,1978,1988,1995,2001,2008,2011 and 2013 were more serious.For 67.48 stations,light drought accounted for 48.24%,moderate drought 29.84%,heavy drought 14.13%,and special drought 7.79%.However,the change in the number of total drought stations showed a slight downward trend.2)Based on the SPI index study,the frequency of drought in the summer maize growing period in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2017 was around 30%,and it showed a slight decrease trend.The drought frequency in the northwestern part of Yunnan is the highest;the arid area from June to September is gradually decreasing,the position of the arid area is gradually moving northward,and the drought is gradually weakening.Using the RCP4.5 future climate scenario data to calculate the SPI index,the average number of droughts in 2020-2100 is also gradually decreasing,similar to the historical situation.The years with fewer droughts were mostly distributed in the first half of the 21st century,and the years with more droughts were distributed in the 20s and 40s and 1990s.3)Comprehensive risk,exposure,vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities to assess the drought risk of summer maize in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2017,the result is that most of the province is in the middle-level risk zone.Only the northwestern part of Yunnan and the eastern part of Yuzhong are located in the sub-high-risk areas and high-risk areas.The risk of drought disasters during the growing period of summer maize in the province is moderately lower.The estimated summer drought risk of summer maize in Anhui Province in 2020-2100 is about two-thirds of the province's risk zone in the middle level.The location of the sub-high-risk area and high-risk area has changed compared with the historical situation.The risk of drought disasters during the summer maize growth period is good.