Study On Drought Risk Assessment And Risk Transfer Countermeasures Of Winter Wheat In Anhui Province

Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Anhui Province,and the perennial planting area accounts for one-half of the cultivated land area of the province.Drought is one of the major disasters in the growth and development of winter wheat.Drought disasters have been in a frequent situation in recent years.Affected by global warming,the mechanism of occurrence and influencing factors of drought disasters are more complicated,and the losses caused by drought are becoming more serious.The topography and climatic conditions in Anhui Province are complex.Due to the influence of economic development and water and soil resources,the adjustment of per capita arable land area,farming and the planting system leads to a decrease in the multiple cropping index,which increases agricultural costs and investment,and increases the risk of food production.In order to ensure food safety production,benefit and avoid harm,and further reduce the damage trigger by disasters,it is of great significance to carry out comprehensive risk assessment of winter wheat drought disasters in Anhui Province and explore new methods of disaster risk transfer.In this paper,through spatial interpolation method,weighted comprehensive evaluation method and data standardization method,the distributional law of precipitation in winter wheat growth period in Anhui Province is analyzed,the comprehensive risk index of winter wheat drought disaster is established,and establish a comprehensive risk assessment index for winter wheat drought disasters,and the comprehensive risk zoning map of winter wheat drought disaster in Anhui Province is painted.According to the results of the comprehensive drought risk assessment,using the winter wheat jointing-heading period drought weather index insurance products in Anhui Province,analysis of the temporal and spatial regularity of the results of the 1986-2015 drought weather index in the area along the Huaihe River and the area north of the Huaihe River,and the following conclusions were drawn:(1)The precipitation of winter wheat in each growth period has obvious zonal distribution characteristics,and it tends to decrease from south to north,that is,the area along the Huaihe River and the area north of the Huaihe River<Area between Yangtze and Huaihe<the area along the Yangtze River and the area south of the Yangtze River;when it comes to time change,the interannual fluctuations of precipitation in the course of winter growth period of winter wheat in Anhui Province were large,and the overall trend was downward(P<0.05).In the same year,the difference of internal precipitation in the same area was also larger.After entering the 21st century,the fluctuation trend and fluctuation range of precipitation were compared with those of the 20th century.The times have increased.From the changing characteristics of the year,the average daily precipitation during the whole growth period of winter wheat in Suzhou,Bengbu,Hefei and Chizhou showed a fluctuating change;the precipitation in the four sites sowing seasons was relatively small;the precipitation during the whole growth period was concentrated in the Jointing-heading stage and grouting-mature period.(2)The hazard of hazard factors and vulnerability of hazard bodies along the Huaihe River and the north of the Huaihe River are the highest,and some areas in southern Anhui are also high-value areas;high environmental vulnerability in the northwestern part of Huaibei,the northeastern part of between the Yangtze and Huaihe river and the Dabie mountains and the southern mountainous areas of Anhui Northwestern Huaibei,low capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation along the Huaihe River and the area north of the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River and the area south of the Yangtze River;The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in the area north of the Huaihe River is lower than that along the Huaihe River.(3)From the perspective of comprehensive risk zoning of winter wheat drought disasters,the risk is highest in the western and northeastern regions of Huaibei;the second is the southeastern part of Huaibei and the eastern part of Huaihe River;the northern part of between the Yangtze and the Huaihe River is a medium risk zone;the second low risk zone is located in the central part of between the Yangtze and Huaihe River and the northeastern part of the Yangtze;the risk along the Yangtze River is the lowest.(4)The spatial distribution characteristics of dry weather index and weather index insurance payment along the Huaihe River and the north of the Huaihe River are less than that of the south and the north,and decrease from the south to the north;the interannual trend of the dry weather index is generally consistent;the drought weather index pays an overall upward trend,the rate of change in Huaibei area is greater than that in Huaihe River.The results of the drought weather index and weather index compensation are consistent with the results of winter wheat drought risk assessment and zoning.This indicates that the dry weather index can well reflect the intensity of drought disasters,and timely and scientifically compensate according to the intensity of the occurrence and the possible losses,more timely and flexible than traditional agricultural insurance.Through the analysis of the precipitation regularity of winter wheat in Anhui Province and the comprehensive risk assessment of winter wheat drought disaster,the area along the Huaihe River and the area north of the Huaihe River is the high-risk area of winter wheat drought in Anhui Province.From the perspective of weather index insurance,analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of winter wheat jointing-heading period drought weather index and weather index compensation in the area along the Huaihe River and the area north of the Huaihe River,it's show that the dry weather index can better reflect the characteristics of drought disasters.Compared with traditional agricultural insurance,weather index insurance is more scientific,objective and fair,and more flexible for real-time compensation.The promotion and application of weather index insurance products is beneficial to disaster risk transfer.It can alleviate the financial burden of the country to a certain extent and is an effective means of transferring disaster risks.