Shanghai Meteorological Characteristics Of The Typhoon Disaster And Disaster Risk Assessment

Based on the data of 1949~2005 from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration/ Typhoon Yearbooks and the previous research, The calamitous typhonic meteorological characteristics, status of damages and risk analysis in different areas were Analyzed. The result as follows:(1)in the past 50 years, the calamitous typhoons occurred 1.5 per year on average and decennial change was obvious; The calamitous typhoons mainly occurred form May to October and August was the high risky period; The main type of calamitous typhoons affecting Shanghai are the ones which change of their directions after landing. There are some few of them landing Shanghai directly; Most of calamitous typhoons were found between 130°E~150°E and 10°N~20°N.(2)The calamitous typhoons appeared lesser in El Nino years than anti-El Nino years; The quantity of calamitous typhoon is related with the annual temperature of Shanghai, the study shows that the quantity of calamitous typhoon would increase because of the globe warming. ( 3 ) The calamitous parameters including casualties, inundated cropland area and collapsed-damaged houses are changed in the recent 50 years. But no remarkable changes take palce in synthetic disaster indexes. Since the 1980s, the disaster indexes have increased; The disaster indexes of the calamitous typhoons were positively associated with the maximum wind speed and total precipitation at Lusi tide station. The data form Wusong and Huangpu Prak tidal stations show a good relationship with the direct economic loss caused by the calamitous typhoon.(4)Using spatial analysis module of ArcGIS to analyze the typhonic estimation of risk degree of Shanghai in different areas:①the regions which have the most possibility to cause disasters including Chongming island, Jinshan District, the probability is more than 95%.②the regions which have the better possibility to cause disasters including Qingpu District, Zhuang Xing Town, Nanqiao Town, Jin Hui town, Zhelin Town, Qin Cun Town and Feng Cheng Town of Fengxian District, the probability is more than 90%.③the regions which likely causes disaster including Songjiang District, Pudong New District, along the banks of Nanhui District, the probability is more than 66%.④the regions which have the possibility to cause disasters including Changxing Island, the Baoshan District, Downtown of Shanghai, Bay Town and Four Groups Town of Fengxian District, the probability is more than 50%.⑤the regions which may cause disasters including Jiading District, Minhang District, the probability is between 33%~66%.⑥the regions which unlikely cause disasters including the dike and seawall along the rivers, the highland along the line of Dian Pu Rive in Songjiang District , the line of Da Ye Rive and People's Pond River in NanHui District , the seawall of Pudong New District, Nanhui District, Fengxian District, the risk degree is extremely low, the probability is less than 33%.⑦the regions which is impossibility to cause disasteers including Huangpu River, Wen Zao River and it's branch rivers run north and south in Jiading District, Dong She mountain,Xi She mountain etc, the topography is extremely high, the risk is the lowest, the probability is less than 10%.