Research On Information Management And Early Warning Of Frozen Disasters In Hunan Province

Hunan is located in the central part of the three disaster-prone areas of China.Due to the special geographical environment,it is a province with a high incidence of freezing disasters.In 2008,a rare ice disaster occurred in southern China.The affected population in Hunan reached 18.71 million people,5 people died,and the direct economic loss was 6.5 billion yuan.Monitoring and early warning of ice disasters,disaster prevention and mitigation are related too production safety,engineering safety,public safety and sustainable and stable development of the society.It is the great demand of the national economy and people's livelihood,and an important guarantee for building a harmony society.Disaster warning is an effective means for dealing with freezing disasters.Ice disaster information management is an indispensable management application for the ice storm warning service.It can provide users a way to collect information and query statistics quickly.Based on the existing theories and data,this paper uses mathematical methods combined with Arcgis to analyze the characteristics of winter climate in 14 cities and prefectures in Hunan Province,and points out the meteorological factors that have a major impact on the freezing disaster-According to the above statement,the frozen forest in Hunan Province is constructed.The main work of the disaster meteorological warning model is as follows:(1)Designed the frozen information management and early warning system of Hunan Province based on user's perspective and needs analysis,detailed description of its function and use,proposed the design idea of the basic database system according to the system function requirements,and carried out the overall structure and function of the database,detailed design.(2)Analysis of rainfall,minimum and maximum average temperature in Hunan Province in the past 50 years,and winter relative humidity and pressure data in the past 23 years,calculating the anomaly percentage of meteorological indicators and using Hunan in 2008.The meteorological data of a large-scale rare freezing disaster occurred as a disaster-causing sample data,looking for the sudden change point of meteorology,and proposed that the two daily meteorological indicators of winter average daily precipitation and winter average daily minimum temperature have a significant impact on the occurrence of ice disaster.(3)Using the generalized Pareto(GPD)distribution model to calculate the quantile of the daily average precipitation in 14 cities and prefectures in Hunan Province and the different daily return temperatures in winter,and propose a onece fiveyears,ten-years and twenty years,and based on the critical value,then a warning scale for freezing disasters was designed.Combining the frozen disaster warning level table with the meteorological real-time data can calculate the warning level of the freezing disaster.The early warning model proposed by the system can provide long-term and accurate monitoring and early warning for the freezing disasters in Hunan Province,and grasp the changing trend of the frozen disasters in the province dynamically,quickly,accuratelyand comprehensively,which is social,ecological and economic sustainable in Hunan.Development plays an important role,and will bring a series of economic,social and ecological benefits;the early warning and forecast of freezing disasters will not only benefit agricultural production,but also ensure the smooth flow of traffic and protect the ecological environment by taking corresponding measures.It can protect people's lives and property and reduce social and economic losses.It can be promoted and implemented nationwide,contributing to disaster prevention and mitigation in China and scientific prevention of freezing disasters.