Research On The Influence Of Changsha Population Structure On The Price Of Commercial Housing

Since the abolition of the welfare housing policy in 1998,the development rate of real estate industry has been amazing,and has become the pillar industry of our national economy.However,due to the late start of China's real estate market,the market is not standardized,and with the rapid development of the economy,the rising income level of residents,the desire for real estate consumption is becoming more and more strong,which leads to a large amount of capital into the real estate market,house prices skyrocketed,deviating from its fundamental direction of solving people's living needs.General Secretary Xi made it clear at the 19 conferences that "houses are used to live,not to be fried" It reflects that China's current real estate market does have some problems.Although there are many factors affecting the real estate market,but China is a country with a large population,the population base is the basic national conditions of our country.Therefore,as the main body of housing transactions,the impact of"people" on China's real estate market cannot be ignored.Taking Changsha as an example,this paper takes the price and population structure of commercial housing as the research object,and selects six demographic variables,such as sex ratio,dependency ratio,family size,employment structure,per capita disposable income and proportion of non-agricultural population,from three aspects of population structure(natural structure of population,social and economic structure of population and regional structure of population).The relevant data of Changsha 2001-2016 are collected,and the influence of VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition on the price of commercial housing is studied empirically.It is found that:(1)The population dependency ratio,family size,per capita disposable income and the proportion of non-farm population all unilaterally have a guiding effect on the price of Changsha commodity housing.The sex ratio has no effect on the price of commercial housing.The price of commercial housing unilaterally has a guiding effect on the employment structure.(2)There is a certain lag period in the influence of each variable on the price of commercial housing.Among them,the population support ratio will inhibit the increase of the price of commercial housing in the short term,the family size has a long-term inhibitory effect on the price of commercial housing,and the per capita disposable income and the proportion of the non-agricultural population have a long-term role in promoting the price of commercial housing,(3)The price of Changsha commercial housing is mainly affected by dependency ratio,family size and proportion of non-farm population.Finally,the paper puts forward some Suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of Changsha real estate market,such as adhering to the "two-child policy",adjusting and optimizing the structure of the real estate market,and insisting on the restriction of loan and purchase.