The Impact Of Major Events On Hangzhou Housing Prices Based On Regression Discontinuity

Since 1998,China has marketized the real estate market,then the real estate industry has begun to develop rapidly and it has become more important in the Chinese economy.With the large fluctuations in house prices over the years,people are paying more attention to some major events that will cause house price fluctuations,as major events often have a large impact and a long cycle.This paper will take Hangzhou housing price as the research object,based on the Regression Discontinuity(RD)method,using Hangzhou community-level data for empirical analysis to reveal the impact of major events on Hangzhou housing prices.First,based on the literature research method,a literature review is made on the influencing factors of house price fluctuations,the existing literature on the impact of major events on house prices,and the current application of RD.Secondly,according to the existing research on RD theory,the general steps of RD are summarized,including grouping variable density function test,using parametric RD and nonparametric RD,and considering the use of different polynomial orders,different bandwidths and different kernels to estimate robustness.Lastly,the continuity test of the control variable is performed.Third,the data,variables,and model settings used in this article are explained in detail.Based on the understanding of major events in this article,the major events in this article are determined during the sample period,including the 2008 financial crisis,the Hangzhou G20 Summit,and the purchase restriction policy.Finally,from the perspective of empirical analysis,the impact of these major events on the housing prices in Hangzhou is analyzed.This study reached the following main conclusions:(1)The financial crisis in 2008 caused a significant drop in the price of Hangzhou's housing,which fell by about 2462-2957 yuan/m2 for 12-15 months before and after the breakpoint.(2)Obtaining the right to host the G20 Summit has no significant impact on Hangzhou residential prices,and the successful holding of the G20 has significantly increased Hangzhou's housing prices.(3)The first purchase restriction policy implemented in Hangzhou significantly reduced the house prices and significantly reduced the slope of the price trend;the cancellation of purchase restrictions did not have a breakpoint effect on Hangzhou housing prices,but significantly changed the trend which has changed from falling to rising;due to the overlapping time of major events,it is difficult to measure the impact of restarting purchase restrictions on house prices in Hangzhou,but this major event significantly reduced the number of new home transactions in Hangzhou,and also reduced the proportion of foreigners in the Hangzhou home buyers.