The Impact Of Population Flow On Real Estate Prices

In recent years,restrictions on settlement have been continuously relaxed.For cities with a resident population of less than 3 million,the restrictions on settlement should be completely lifted.For large cities with a resident population of less than 5 million,the policy on settlement should be completely relaxed.The goal of the state is to solve the problem of settlement of more non-registered population and to make the urbanization rate continue to steadily increase.In addition,the phenomenon of competition for talents occurred frequently in the first two years.Up to now,more and more cities have joined the ranks,and various regions have introduced various policies to introduce talents.Nowadays,the competition for talents includes not only the working population,but also the people who have the ability to consume.This phenomenon is due to the shortage of high-end talents,working population and consumers in the city,and the lack of motivation for the sustainable development of the city's economy.Only by continuously attracting and retaining the population can the competitiveness of the city be enhanced.However,the continuous relaxation of the policy of settling down and the continuous promotion of the policy of introducing talents have made the phenomenon of population mobility the norm.In order to better live and work,people choose to go to cities with more development prospects.However,the influx of hundreds of thousands of newly added population into areas with a net population inflow within one year is bound to have a greater impact on the local real estate market,because the housing problem is the first thing to be solved after a large number of people settle down.What kind of influence will the population change bring to the city house price has become the question that people pay close attention to.Based on a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper first deduces theoretically the mechanism of the impact of population mobility on real estate prices.Then it uses econometric models to conduct empirical research on the panel data of31 provincial units in China from 2002 to 2018.Five relevant indicators are selected,including the floating population,the average wage of employees in urban units,the education level,the investment in real estate development and housing construction cost.Firstly,the grey correlation value between the average selling price of residential commercial housing and each index is calculated,and the ranking of the correlation is as follows: investment in real estate development,housing completion cost,education level,floating population and average wage of employees in urban units.Then through the panel data model for empirical analysis,this paper divides the 31 provincial units in the country into three parts: east,west,and east.The stationarity test and cointegration test show that there is no pseudo regression and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship in the data.By determining the corresponding panel data model types through F test and Hausman test,regression analysis can be carried out on the data.The final conclusion is that the model is remarkable.The eastern region is a region with a net inflow of population.The increase of population accelerates the rise of house prices.The central and western regions are regions with a net outflow of population.The decrease of population inhibits the rise of house prices.From a nationwide perspective,population mobility plays a positive role in promoting housing prices.Finally,according to the theoretical and empirical results of this paper,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.