Research On The Influencing Factors Of Chinese Residents' Income Mobility Based On Dynamic Multinomial Logit Model

Since the reform and opening up,the inequality of the income of Chinese residents has become more and more severe,which will cause serious dissatisfaction among the people of the low-income class,which will lead to an increase in social unrest.However,this income inequality is a reality that is long-term and not easy to change easily.The liquidity of income can alleviate people's dissatisfaction to a certain extent.Therefore,study the factors affecting income liquidity and promote income by changing these factors.The flow is particularly important.Based on the Markov transfer matrix,this paper studies the current situation of China's income liquidity and the impact of income liquidity by using a dynamic multivariate logit model combined with the principle of marginal effect from the perspective of relative income liquidity.This paper analyzes the impact of individual factors(including gender,age,education level,household registration and region)on income mobility,and removes the influence of relatively more accurate individual factors by adding the impact factor of the previous income.At the same time,it analyzes the society of our country.The current status of income liquidity mainly draws two conclusions.First,the class in which the individual was in the previous period will increase the probability that the current stage is still in that class,and with the increase of the class in which it is located,the possibility of class mobility is smaller.In other words,the income class in China has a solidification phenomenon.And with the increase of the income class,the solidification phenomenon is more serious,and the rising channel of income appears to be significantly narrowed at the top three income classes.Second,the gender,age,education level,household registration,and other attributes of the individual have an impact on the mobility between social income classes.From the perspective of gender factors,the probability of women entering the bottom of the income distribution is higher than that of men.Therefore,promoting women's income increase may increase income mobility.From the perspective of age,the effect of age on income is inverted U-shaped,reaching the peak of income in the age range of 29-38.This age group has a higher probability of entering the high-income class than other age groups,entering the low-income class.The probability is smaller,and as the age increases,the income liquidity increases first,and then the income growth becomes smaller as the age continues to grow.From the perspective of education level,individuals with higher education level are more likely to enter middle-and high-income groups than those with low education level.Therefore,China may promote social income class by improving the education level of residents.The flow.From the perspective of household registration factors,urban hukou relative to rural hukou will increase the probability of individuals entering middle and high income groups,and the probability of entering low-income groups will be reduced.Therefore,narrowing the gap between the interests of urban and rural hukou may be narrowed.It can promote the mobility of social income to a certain extent.From the perspective of regional factors,the probability of residents in the eastern and central regions entering the high-income class is higher than that in the western region,and the probability of entering the low-income class is reduced.Therefore,according to the natural endowment of the region,the regions are coordinated through support and other means.Industrial development between the two may increase the mobility between the social income classes.In terms of innovation,this paper mainly adds the previous income as an impact factor in the empirical model,making it a dynamic model that incorporates the individual's historical state.The relatively non-dynamic model can more accurately strip off the influence of each impact factor.The model can derive the transition probability between each income class(that is,the liquidity between income classes),and can get the size of the individual factors to the inflow liquidity,and given the specific individual characteristics,can calculate its entry into a certain The probability of the income class.