Empirical Study On Credit Risk Measurement Of Listed Companies Based On KMV-Logit Hybrid Model

In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of China's credit default risk events and the large scale of the subject of credit default,the better operating conditions and the continuous expansion of the industries involved,we are reminding us that we need to pay more attention to the management of credit risk.Listed companies play an important role in the allocation and operation of China's capital market,the transformation and optimization of industrial structure,and are an important force in promoting contemporary economic development and institutional reform.In this context,paying close attention to the credit status of listed companies in China and establishing a credit risk management method in line with China's market economy has important practical significance for improving China's financial market environment and improving China's credit system.Investors and commercial banks provide effective quantitative techniques for measuring the credit risk of listed companies.This paper selects three models to measure the credit risk of listed companies,namely KMV model,Logit model and KMV-Logit hybrid model.This paper introduces the basic principles and framework of three credit risk assessment models,and then through empirical analysis,from the aspects of model goodness of fit,classification and prediction effects,it is confirmed that the KMV-Logit hybrid model is beneficial to listed companies compared to the single model.The assessment of risk has better applicability,rationality and accuracy.Next,In this paper,30 listed companies in ST or*ST in 2018 and 30 listed companies with sound financial conditions were selected as the default sample group and the non-default sample group respectively,and the financial data and stock market transaction data in 2015,2016 and 2017 were respectively used for the empirical research of the three models.The research shows that the KMV-Logit hybrid model covers the financial data and stock market data of listed companies.It takes into account the historical information and real-time information of the company,which can improve the accuracy of screening high-risk and low-risk companies and dynamically update the evaluation results.At the same time,through the research of the three-year data,the best period to analyze the credit risk of the enterprise and the inference that the data of the early years can be used to measure the credit risk can be found.