Research On Economic Benefit Evaluation Of Chongqing Yanjiang Expressway Main City To Fuling Section

In recent years,our country is increasing the investment of highway construction,at the same time,there are some problems in the rapid development process,how to make scientific and reasonable investment decision and operation management,Become the main problem that highway enterprise faces at present.The growth of expressway traffic volume is the premise and guarantee of operation,and the reasonable forecast of traffic is the key node to grasp the economic benefits of the project.This paper intends to use the "four-stage" method to forecast the traffic volume of the project.Combined with data Envelopment Analysis(DEA),to select objective and quantifiable evaluation indexes,a post-evaluation model of expressway project economic benefits is constructed,and the expressway project is evaluated and analyzed.The paper is mainly divided into three parts.The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter.Firstly,the research background and significance of this paper are expounded,the existing problems are summarized and the research direction is determined.Secondly,it explains the related concepts such as the post-evaluation of expressway project and the evaluation of economic benefits,compares the various evaluation methods of the post-evaluation of the project's economic benefits,and analyzes its advantages,disadvantages and applicability.Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)is selected as the evaluation method based on the theory of benefit analysis.This part is the research basis of the full text,clear the full text frame and train of thought,and provide the theoretical basis for the construction and operation of the follow-up model.The second part includes the third chapter and the fourth chapter,the third chapter deeply analyzes the influence factor of the expressway traffic volume,determines the forecast train of thought from the traffic volume formation mechanism angle,unifies the existing forecast method and the model,This paper analyzes and compares its advantages and disadvantages as well as its applicable scope,and respectively selects the suitable forecasting methods for the trend growth traffic volume,the induced traffic volume and the transfer traffic volume.At the same time,the definition and analysis steps of sensitivity are defined,and sensitivity factors and analysis methods are determined to check the accuracy of traffic volume prediction.In the fourth chapter,according to the main basis of the economic post-evaluation of the project,the paper analyzes the components of the project expenditure and economic benefits,the influencing factors,the calculation methods,and selects the input and output indicators of the DEA model to construct the economic post-evaluation model based on DEA,and gives the evaluation process.This part is the key part of the paper,and provides the concrete method guidance for the following example analysis.The third part includes the fifth and sixth chapters,taking Chongqing high speed project along the river as an example,according to the current traffic volume and operation data of the project,the traffic volume prediction and sensitivity analysis are carried out,and the lateral economic benefits of the highway along the river are evaluated respectively.Longitudinal economic benefit evaluation,forecast analysis of the future year,the method selected in the second part and the model constructed are available.Finally,the paper summarizes the main research results and puts forward the next research direction.