Temporal And Spatial Evolution Analysis And Development Trend Prediction Of China's Marine Economic Efficiency

Since the 21 st century,China's marine economy has developed rapidly and has played an increasingly important role in the development of the national economy.At the same time,the concept of developing a marine economy has penetrated into marinerelated planning and practice.The Chinese economy has become highly dependent on the ocean and has been an open economy.Under the realistic conditions of slowing national economic growth and limited increase in marine resources,if we want to promote the further development of the marine economy,we must pay attention not only to the utilization of total marine resources,but also to the improvement of marine economic efficiency.This paper firstly combs the research on the relevant fields of marine economic efficiency at home and abroad.After learning and summarizing the connotation,evaluation method and development theory of marine economy efficiency,the paper establishes the evaluation index system of marine economic efficiency and clarifies the measurement method.This paper takes 11 provinces and cities along the coast(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)as the research object,and uses the DEA model,DEA-Malmquist index method and PVAR model to measure economic efficiency and total factor productivity,and forecast the development trend of the total factor productivity of the marine economy and its internal mechanism in 2016-2026.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall economic efficiency of marine economy in China's coastal areas shows an upward trend.The spatial distribution of marine economic efficiency maintains the development pattern of the northeastsouthwest direction,and the center of gravity shifts to the northeast.Significant efficiency distribution agglomeration.(2)The total factor productivity of China's marine economy has gradually steadily increased,and the differences in regional development have gradually decreased,showing a three-stage development of high growth and large differences,low growth and small differences,and high growth and small differences.Among its decomposition indexes,the technological progress index and the scale efficiency change index show an overall upward trend,while the pure technology efficiency change index shows a trend of fluctuation and decline.(3)From the perspective of internal mechanism,the current marine economy is in the stage of diminishing returns to scale.The development mode of simply increasing factor input has inhibited the growth of the marine economy.The innovative development model oriented by technological progress has become an important force leading the development of the marine economy.Capability has become the most important driving force for the development of total factor productivity in the marine economy.(4)Judging from the forecast results,between 2016 and 2026,the growth rate of the marine economic technological progress index and the marine economic scale change index will continue to increase due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the marine economy's total factor productivity and the marine economy's pure efficiency change index.The ocean scale economy,system management level and the improvement of science and technology level all promote the development of total factor productivity of the marine economy,among which marine science and technology have the greatest impact.