The Low-carbon Policy Intervention Path And Simulation Research Of Urban Residents' Energy Consumption Behavior

Residents' energy consumption behavior is the main source of China's future growth in energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions.It is also an area in which China must honor international commitments for energy conservation and emission reduction,and realize low-carbon economy and build ecological civilization.The study of residents' low-carbon energy consumption behaviors can be based on the individual's active awareness of the sense of responsibility and values,and on the other hand,it can also be caused by the induction of external contextual factors.Therefore,the study of the mechanism of different policy tools on the low carbonation of residents' energy consumption behavior will provide a theoretical basis for the development and optimization of behavior-guided policies,and is an important issue for the promotion of ecological civilization construction from a life style.Therefore,this article takes the low carbonization of urban residents' energy consumption behavior as the research object.A large sample survey was conducted on the driving factors of low energy consumption of urban residents.Using the structural equation model and agent-based computer simulation modeling techniques,an empirical test was conducted on the mechanism models of different policy tools on the low carbonation of residents' energy consumption behavior.Compared with the system simulation,the effect of different policy tools and the same policy tool on promoting the low carbonation of residents' energy consumption behavior under different intensity scenarios is compared to provide the basis for policy selection and optimization.The content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:Firstly,from the perspective of policy instrument analysis,policy tools related to residents' energy consumption behavior are divided into four policy tools: command control,economic incentive,informational,and voluntary participation,and we analyze the characteristics of the four types of policy instruments.We have sorted out,classified,and analyzed relevant policies in the United States,the European Union,Japan,and China from the perspective of the four types of policy instruments.We found that there are many command-and-control policy tools used in China's energy-saving and emission-reduction policies,and there are insufficient application of economic incentive policies.The characteristics of voluntary participation-type policies are mainly targeted at high-energy-consuming industries such as industry,construction,and transportation,and the policies directly targeting residents' energy consumption behaviors are still lacking.Secondly,based on the literature research and the analysis of the characteristics of policy instruments,a theoretical model for the policy intervention path of low-carbon energy consumption behavior of urban residents is constructed.Afterwards,the theoretical model was tested empirically using quantitative methods such as structural models and multivariate statistical analysis.As a result,it was found that both the social norms and the psychological factors of conformity psychology indirectly affect the residents' energy consumption behavior through behavioral willingness.The four types of policy tools,such as command-and-control policies,economic incentive policies,information-based policies,and voluntary participation policies,have a significant role in regulating the relationship between behavioral willingness and behavior.Thirdly,based on the empirical analysis results and simulation goals,relying on the Netlogo simulation platform,a computer simulation model based on agent-based different policy tools for the low-carbon effect of residents' energy consumption behavior was established.Simulation and forecasting under different policy scenarios,the characteristics of changes in energy consumption behavior of residents' groups provide the basis for policy optimization.Firstly,the attribute description and behavior rules are set for the real system of the relationship between policy and residents' energy consumption behavior.Then,the BP artificial neural network is used to determine the behavioral selection function and behavioral perception function of residents' agents and the calculations between related factors.The results show that: in the absence of external policy intervention,residents' long-term low-carbon behavioral willingness and energy consumption behavior have a low tendency to low carbonization;four different types of policy tools are under different intensity interventions.while the effects of different intensity interventions of four different types of policy tools on daily energy saving behaviors are significantly different.Finally,based on the main research conclusions of policy analysis,empirical research and simulation modeling in this study,four aspects of order-control policy,economic incentive policy,information-based policy,and voluntary participation-based policy are proposed to guide residents' low-carbon energy conservation.The policy recommendations for the implementation of the behavior also illustrate the limitations of the research and the direction and content for further in-depth research.