Land Use Change Simulation And Landscape Ecological Effect Analysis In Chang’an District Based On CLUE-S Model

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is influenced by both human activities and natural environment.With the development of human economy,land use/cover has changed.Therefore,the change of regional ecological environment is caused.Based on the above phenomenon,a series of problems have emerged which threaten the ecological security and sustainable use of land in the region.In LUCC study,it is an effective way to use the land use change model to forecast the land utilization condition,at the same time,this approach is also an effective way to study regional land use change and ecological effect analysis.The landscape pattern and change can reflect the impact of human activities and natural factors on the regional ecological environment.Combining LUCC with landscape patterns has great siginificance for realizing the sustainable utilization of land resources,to understand regional landscape pattern characteristics,protecting the ecological environment,promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and environment,etc.This article selects Chang’an District as the study area.First of all,the researcher analyzed the current situation of land use in Chang’an District from 2010 to 2015.Subsequently,analyzed the relationship between land use types and driving factors using the Binary Logistic regression,and the CLUE-S model was established.Based on the land use data of Chang’an District in 2010,the land use data of 2015 in Chang’an District was simulated and verified;Base on the land use data of Chang’an District in 2015,the land use data of Chang’an District in 2025 will be predicted.Finally,based on the land use data of Chang’an District in 2010,2015 and 2025,the researcher analyzed the ecological efficiency in Chang’an District.The research results are mainly as follows:(1)According to analyze the change in land use quantity and its evolution characteristics from 2010 to 2015 in Chang’an District,the research concluded that the most obvious land types are construction land and farmland in Chang’an District,and the orientation of land use change mainly includes from farmland,garden land,forest land,grassland and water areas to construction land,and a small amount of transfer between another different land use types.(2)From 2010 to 2015,the pattern shape and boundary of land use types in Chang’an District are developing in a simple and regular direction.The ability of land use types to resist external disturbances and maintain their own steady state has improved in Chang’an District,excepting water area.(3)The CLUE-S model is based on the binary logistic regression method is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Chang’an District in 2015.The accuracy evaluation KAPPA value was 0.93,which was much greater than 0.75,and the simulation effect was good,and it has a great effect.It indicates that the relevant parameters and the CLUE-S model can be used to predict the future land use spatial distribution pattern in Chang’an District.(4)The crushing degree of land use patterns in the land use types of the Chang’an District has declined from 2010 to 2025,and all types of land use have developed toward a more uniform and continuous overall direction.However,the land use type area difference are obvious,the degree of overall landscape fragmentation is relatively high.With time passing,the high value area of landscape ecological effect index in the Chang’an District has increased,the degree of human influence on the landscape has increased,and the risk of the ecological environment in the area has increased.