Trend And Mutation Analysis Of Temperature And Precipitation In The Guangdong Province

Climate change is no longer just a subject issue,it is becoming an significant social issue that many people care about.The trend of climate change in our country is basically the same as that of the national climate change.There are many reasons that leading to climate change,such as the rapid population growth,the weak awareness of environmental protection and so on.Climate change also brought influence to human life,social development,and so on.It is of great significance to strengthen the analysis and study of past climate change,which will have great significance for the future assessment and prediction of climate change.Therefore,it is of great significance to study and analyze the climate change.In this paper,the indicators data of precipitation and air temperature at six stations in Guangdong Province(Shaoguan,Guangzhou,Dongyuan,Shantou,Shanwei and Yangjiang,but there was no extreme indicator data of Dongyuan but with Heyuan site)were got from website.It includs average daily maximum temperature,average daily minimum temperature and polar index(cold days,cold nights,warm days,warm nights,hot nights,summer days,heavy rain days,very heavy rain days).The conventional indicators data is from 1953 to 2011 and the extreme indicators data is from from 1971 to 2012.The Mann-Kendall trend analysis method is used to analysis the trend of temperature and precipitation in the past period and Mann-Kendall(MK)is also used to find out the mutation points.This article describes the causes of climate change,the impacts of climate change,the progress of research on climate change at home and abroad and the significance and research purpose of climate change research.The results show that:a)The trend of monthly precipitation in these stations in Guangdong Province is relatively stable;In recent years,the average daily precipitation in autumn of CGuangdong Province shows a downward trend with a small fluctuation.The trend of precipitation in the four seasons and corresponding month was same;b)The daily average maximum temperature in Guangdong Province has shown an upward trend in recent years.The monthly maximum temperature changeshows an increasing trend.There were different numbers of mutation points at different time points in different months of different regions.The average daily maximum temperature has shown an upward trend in the four seasons of Shaoguan,Guangzhou,Shantou and Shanwei.the average maximum temperature in each season has changed in the confidence interval,the highest temperature in Guangzhou had a sudden change in 1991;c)The average daily minimum temperature in Guangdong Province has shown an upward trend in recent 59 years.The daily minimum temperature in four seasons of Guangdong showed a rising trend.The lowest temperature in all seasons of these regions had a mutation point except for Shaoguan:d)The temperature in Guangdong Province showed an overall upward trend consistenting with global warming trends and the change in minimum temperature is greater than the change in maximum temperature.In the 1980s.a sudden change occurred in Guangzhou and the change in Guangzhou was obvious:e)In recent years.the high temperature polarity indicators show that the temperature in Guangdong Province shoxed an upward trend.the number of rainy days and rainy days in Guangdong Province have declined and the number of rainy days and the number of days of heavy rain in these areas are more stable;f)Climate change can be different in different regions and mutation time is not in sync.