Climate Change Of Dalian City In Recent50Years And Assessment Of Adaptation

To analyze the spatial and temporal variation of temperature, precipitation and wind speed bylinear trend method, Mann-Kendall statistical test and GIS sptial analysis, and periodicvariation by wavelet analysis based on basic meteorological data from1960-2010in Dalian.The results indicate that: annually mean temperature increasing significantly with the rate of0.27℃/10ain recent50years, and warming mainly owing to minimum temperature. In space,warming tendency gradually weaken from south to eastnorth; precipitation generallydescending, in terms of interdecadal, undergoing the process of “decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing”, decreasing amplitude bigger in northeast and southwest, yet smallerin interior; wind speed slow down quickly in fluctuation, particularly almost decreasinglinerly after1990s. In space, the south and north strengthening, but increasing amlitudesmaller, the rest weakening. In addition, periodic oscillation of temperature is around20years,7years and3years. Precipitation such as about20years,10years and4years, wind speed forabout25years,10years and3years, relative humidity for about10years,6years and3years.In the context of more obvious warming and drying trend of Dalian climate，according to theprinciple of dynamic coupling among systems, society, economy, agriculture, resource andenvironment system are selected as the subsystem for assessment of adaptation to Dalianclimate change. Firstly, the comprehensive development levels of climate system andsubsystems during2000-2010are calculated by principal component analysis (PCA). Thenthe adaptation degree of Dalian climate change is decided by the function of membershipgrade in fuzzy mathematics. The results show: The comprehensive level of Dalian climatesystem fluctuates bigger and ascends obviously. The development levels of assessmentsubsystem are also in rising tendency. Moreover notable stage characteristic exists in them.The comprehensive level of climate system and four assessment subsystem is all lower, butthe former higher than the latter during2000-2004; the development level of all obviouslyascending, but the former lower than the latter during2005-2009. The adaptation degree ofDalian climate change relative to evaluation subsystem is in fluctuation. And it is indecreasing trend relative to society development and eco-environment quality, yet inincreasing trend relative to agriculture and economy development before2007, after thatrising quickly. However, the adaptation degree of economy, society, agriculture andeco-environment subsystem relative to climate system generally descending, descending amplitude is separately0.7,0.8,0.9and1.1. On the whole, the adaptation degree of Dalianclimate change is generally in weakly descending trend from2000to2010, especially,downturn degree bigger since2007.