Eastern Asia Climate Change And Teleconnection Based On Complex Network

Under the background of global warming,climate change poses a significant threat to both natural and social systems worldwide.The anomaly of East Asian monsoon become more and more frequent,and its anomaly is the main factors leading to floods in East Asia,especially in China.Therefore,it is the focus of researchers to explore the areas vulnerable to climate change under the background of global warming and predict the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.In this study,we aim to identify regions most impacted by climate change using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP-NCAR)reanalysis of near-surface daily air temperature data spanning 73 years(1948–2020).We develop a novel climate network framework to identify “hot spots”,regions that exhibit significant impact or impacted characteristics.Specifically,we use the node degree,a fundamental feature of the network,to measure the influence of each region and analyze its trend over time using the Mann–Kendall test.Our findings reveal that the majority of land areas experiencing increasing degrees are more closely connected to other regions,while the ocean shows the opposite trend due to weakened oceanic circulations.In particular,the degree in the central Pacific Ocean’s El Ni?o region is significantly reduced.Notably,we identify three “hot spots” in East Asia,South America,and North Africa,respectively,with intensive increasing network degree fields.Additionally,we find that the hot spot in East Asia is tele-connected to remote regions,such as the South Pacific,Siberia,and North America,with stronger teleconnections in recent years.Because East Asia is a hot area,global warming has a significant impact on East Asian Rainfall,so it is very meaningful to further study East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.We construct a series of time-delayed climate networks and detect the correlation between network parameters and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall is analyzed.We find that some characteristics of southern South America have a good correlation with East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.Therefore,it is taken as a predictor of rainfall in East Asia,which can be predicted five months in advance with a forecasting skill of 0.42(Pearson correlation).These results provide a new perspective for evaluating the impact of global warming and the causes of climate change in East Asia,and can also provide early warning for the upcoming extreme rainfall events.