Climate Change And Its Response To Global Oscillation Index In Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang

An issue has being concerned about nowadays, that is climate change. A factor which leads the regional climate change is the change of climate system that consists of the atmosphere, the ocean, the land and the interaction between the three. Oscillation is a phenomenon which is close to not only the wide-range climate change, but also the regional climate change. The paper chooses two sorts of information, one is meteorological data, and the other is oscillation index. Three kinds of meteorological data include the annual temperature, the annual precipitation, and the annual relative humidity from five meteorological stations that is Baluntai, Bayinbuluke, Hejing, Yanqi and Hoxud. Five kinds of oscillation index are South Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), Pacific Decade Oscillation Index (PDOI), Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI). The main conclusions with Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Detrend Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Wavelet Analysis and Regress Analysis have been found as followed:1. The oscillation indexes have an obvious upwards trend during recent50years except SOI has an opposite trend. The abrupt change of PDOI happens in1965, NAOI in1971, AOI in1973and AAOI in1983. The variation period of AOI is13years that is the longest period in the five indexes. SOI, NAOI and AAOI have the same variation period9years and PDOI is8years.2. All the three groups of meteorological data show an increasing trend, but the annual precipitation has a unobvious trend other than the annual average temperature and the annual relative humidity. Through the abrupt change test, the annual average temperature happens in1998, the annual precipitation and the annual relative humidity are in1989and1983. The variation period both the annual average temperature and the annual precipitation are26years, while the annual relative humidity is25years. 3. By the increasing time scale, the fitness of the wavelet regress model that between the meteorological data and oscillation index becomes better. The correlation between AAOI and climate factor is higher the other ones (SOI, NAOI, PDOI, AOI).