Risk Assessment Of Economic Impasct Of Hazard-inducing Tropical Cyclones In Southeast Coastal China

This paper selects Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong provinces as the research area.The tropical cyclones causing economic losses are defined as hazard-inducing tropical cyclones,including the tropical cyclones that have not yet landed but still cause losses.The threshold of hazard-inducing tropical cyclone is determined through observed daily air pressure,wind speed and precipitation data from meteorological stations.Output of regional climate model COSMO-CLM(CCLM)is used to analyze the characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of hazard-inducing tropical cyclones in 2021-2050 under RCP2.6,4.5,8.5 scenarios.We also project the economic change under the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2)by using the Cobb-Douglas model,and then reveal the econormic impact of hazard-inducing tropical cyclones in the future.Results show that:(1)The hazard-inducing tropical cyclones occurred 180 times in the southeast coastal area during 1986-2015,the highest frequency was found in the coastal areas bordering Zhejiang province and Fujian province and southwestern Guangdong province.Guangdong province has been affected most frequently,followed by Fujian province,while Zhejiang province was relatively less affected.The wind speed of hazard-inducing tropical cyclones in the east of Zhejiang province and the eastern coast of Guangdong was more than 1lm/s,and the area of precipitation over 125mm is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal area of Zhejiang province and southwestern Guangdong province.Under RCP2.6 scenario,hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will occur 6.3 times per year,with increase of average wind speed and precipitation by 9%and 15%,the frequency of 68%regions will increase;Hazard-inducing tropical cyclones are projected to occur 7 times per year under RCP4.5 scenario,with increase of wind speed and precipitation by 16%and 32%than 1986-2005,the frequency of 73%regions will increase;Under RCP8.5 scenario,frequency of hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will be 5.8 times which is smaller than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5,59%regions will increase,while their wind speed and precipitation will increase by 32%and 50%,which is greater than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5.(2)The average annual GDP of the southeastern coastal areas in the period of 2021-2050 will be 33.9 trillion yuan,and northern Zhejiang and the coastal areas of Guangdong province will increase substantially.Under RCP2.6 scenario,the average annual economic exposure of hazard-inducing topical cyclones is 15.4 trillion,and the strongest hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will occur four times.Hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will cause 139.3 billion economic losses per year during 2021-2050,with76.7%increase in the region exceeded 500 million yuan,and the increase in the south of Zhejiang and the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong is relatively large;Under RCP4.5 scenario,economic exposure is 18.5 trillion per year,the strongest hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will occur five times.Hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will cause 194.9 billion economic losses per year,with 82.2%:increase in the region exceeded 500 million yuan;Under RCP8.5 scenario,economic exposure is 13.4 trillion per year which is smaller than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5,but the strongest hazard-inducing tropical cyclones will occur eight times.Economic losses will be 128.3 billion,with 69.3%increase in the region exceeded 500 million yuan...